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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (99251)4/6/2000 10:57:00 AM
From: H James Morris  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Victor, I thought this would put a smile on your face.:-)
>What is the price for smoke & mirrors?

Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN)
Rating: Strong Sell

The company that made itself a household name by letting consumers name their own price on airline tickets is now trying to bring the technology to just about any product it possibly can. As fans of the basic business plan and technology, we were disappointed to see the venture into home financing and automobiles, but then we outright cringed at groceries. How many people will go online once a week to negotiate for groceries?

Revenues went up in 1999, to nearly 14 times the previous year's numbers, but so too did net losses, mounting to nearly $53 million in calendar year 1999. Yet the company's upbeat management announced in January that they expected to be in the black by the first half of 2001, pushing ahead their estimates from the second half of 2001.

We say no way. Priceline.com is doing an Amazon -- it's expanding into new markets too quickly at the expense of building solid, profitable businesses in key segments. The company got into groceries late last year and has announced plans to offer everything from car rentals and vacation packages to long-distance calling by the end of 2000. And then there's the launch of an Asian Priceline.com out of Hong Kong.

The concept is a natural for certain markets in which there are regular pockets of excess supply. Which is why the name-your-price technology is so well suited to perishable travel commodities such as air tickets, hotel rooms, and car rentals. The company should have remained focused on these key sectors and avoided markets such as groceries.

What price Priceline.com? If it does not remain focused, its current share price is far too high. When certain lines of business fold and the company pushes back its date with profitability, expect this stock to drop 50 percent or more. Investors won't have the ability to name their own price.