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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GP Kavanaugh who wrote (8354)	4/6/2000 1:10:00 PM
From: ayahuasca	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9236

Our forecast of $30 million in revenues and EPS of $0.38 in 2000 (pro-forma fully taxed EPS is projected at $0.24) is based on our view that Aware will hold 40%-50% of an ADSL chip market of 9.3 million units. We think our market-size estimate could be quite conservative, but we're not yet changing any financial projections. We are, however, reiterating our BUY rating on Aware's shares, with a one-year target price of $61 per share. We note that, in a market that appears to be sorting concepts from earnings, Aware has been tracking our projections closely since we initiated coverage in the fall of 1998. The Company is one of the few ADSL "stories" with earnings attached, and from our vantage point its fundamentals continue to improve. Thanks for posting this. It reads very nicely and is positive for AWRE. I just cant figure out the valuation metrics Robbie Stephens uses when they rate both AWRE and VRTA as buys. In the segment above it underscores the fact that they are being conservative in estimating AWRE's ability to capture 40-50% of the market in which both they and VRTA compete. If this is true then how can they justify a valuation on VRTA when it has 3-4x AWRE's market value. Yesterday, when I posted the stock info on AWRE and VRTA it became clear to me why VRTA has been able to run up so much- they have a tiny float. But the fact that someone like RS supports this with a buy recommendation is just ludicrous to me.