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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (41435)	4/6/2000 4:48:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

johnd: Very astute on point #2 but they can probably get around that with options that are exercisable after the lock up date. JFD

To: johnd who wrote (41435)	4/6/2000 4:58:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Best long term investment buys become available when the fear is the highest in the markets. Best investment sells become available when greed is the highest. In MSFT case, who is the long term investors? Few of us and may be a very few fund managers and definitely MSFT. MSFT by itself can't buy because of visio deal. Else, they would have bought a few billion dollars worth right here. John Connors said so at the financial analysts meeting (MSFT at mid 90s then) in New York that he would buy MSFT aggressively in the open market if it were possible. He said they would consider changing the viso acquisition terms with SEC so that they can start buyback sooner. Having been in the markets for 16 years, I can tell you that 5 years down the road you will look back and say what an opportunity it was in April 2000 when MSFT was available at a PE multiple of 48. Regarding why MSFT agree to fast track with TPJ: ------------------------------------------------- They are smart. First DOJ has to come up with a proposal. The shorter the time they have for this, the less thought out it would be. Then MSFT gets to review and let TPJ know if it needs more time. MSFT will definitely ask for more time. The remedy face won't end till October. Take my word for it. MSFT will fight to death that the case doesn't bypass appeals court. When defendant has such a heavy request, the courts will hear the case. This case will go through appeals court for one year till October 2001. Regarding MSFT's business: -------------------------- In Calendar 2001; MSFT will generate 35 - 40 Billion in revenues and make about 15 - 18 Billion in Profits. The company will report about 3.30 in EPS in CY2001. MSN + Webtv wil grow to 5 Million members in 2000 and to about 8 to 10 million users in 2001. Windows 2000 will be wildly successful and will surprise everyone. PcoketPC will have 50% market share against Palm by 2001 end. Balance sheet ------------- MSFT will have over 30 Billion in cash by end of 2001 Will have another 40 Billion in investments by end of 2001 Or total of 70 Billion in cash + investments. That is about $13 a share just in cash + investments. Team: ---- MSFT has one of the world's best management, legal, and engineering team on the planet. Lastly, the stock will be at 250 to 300 in 2 yrs.