To: DaveMG who wrote (4029 ) 4/7/2000 9:46:00 AM From: tero kuittinen Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 34857
Dave - it seems that the postmortems on Q-phone, pdQ, Globalstar and cdma2000 weren't that far off the mark. As a matter of fact, I'd like to hear some explanation from people who hailed these projects as monuments of Qualcomm's mobile telecom expertise. These four projects have flopped so fast that many industry commentators are still in full-blown denial. This is the question: if Qualcomm makes a billion dollars this year - are the same brainiacs who were responsible for Q-phone, pdQ, Globalstar and cdma2000 going to spend that money on new R&D efforts? Does this sound like a winning concept - or does it make your stomach turn? I think it would be a better deal for QCOM shareholders if these engineers would spend their time watching Shopping Channel and eating Dorritos - I kid you not. Dabbling in technologies outside their core competence of second-generation chipset design hasn't been such a hot idea so far. I'm holding Nokia accountable for the success of the GSM-1800, TETRA, GPRS, DSL, LAN, EDGE and W-CDMA projects; to some extent also for Bluetooth and EPOC. Perhaps not all of these initiatives will succeed to the same extent. But I would be very, very worried if several of them would flop. Or if Nokia's 3G proposal would have been defeated. Just as a failed satellite phone project would have been an alarming sign of lack of judgement. There is no doubt that all leading mobile operators in Europe and most in Asia are now planning to spend 3-10 billion dollars for each individual W-CDMA license and then 4-10 billion dollars for each individual W-CDMA network. Nokia has the same responsibility as Ericsson to make this work out in the end, even though the details of the network deals will remain secret. No doubt there are certain deadlines. Some people think that Qualcomm could possibly block W-CDMA and thus challenge the 10-20 major mobile operators and vendors who are now committed to W-CDMA. I don't think this is plausible. Can you imagine what the global stock market turmoil would be? The combined market cap of W-CDMA champions like Deutsche Telekom, BT, Vodafone, NTT-DoCoMo, DDI, etc. is topping 2 trillion dollars. Tero