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Non-Tech : GRIN (Grand Toys International Inc) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (489)	4/10/2000 1:38:00 PM
From: Frank McVerry	Respond to of 495

Hello Kevin, I saw your post - will post my thoughts after Tax Day. Rgds, Frank

To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (489)	4/20/2000 11:26:00 PM
From: Frank McVerry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 495

Thoughts on GRIN Hi Kevin, As promised, here is my latest take on the GRIN situation. <<I did promise a return visit this month, but I would guess you're probably not too pleased with your GRIN investment right now, so I'll not tarry.>> Even though I only left part of my profit in GRIN, after last August's run-up, the fall since Christmas has been unpleasant (and overdone ?). << Looks like that $14M year-end cash position you and I went back and forth over never did materialize for you.>> Careful here ! My $14M estimate was based on a FULL exercise of the available options and $11M was my actual prediction. Even though they had record-equalling full-year revenue (thanks mainly to Furby), the Christmas quarter was disappointing with only $10M sales (I was expecting about $14M) and this messed-up my $3M profit prediction. I've only seen their earnings press release so far and am curious to see the inventory/receivables/collectables situation. I'm also surprised with the foreign exchange loss - my impression was that the C$ was in recovery during '99. IMO, the market is valuing GRIN's basic business (thin-margin Canadian distribution) at $0 and simply giving some speculative value to their new acquisitions and their much-improved financial status, which is almost entirely due to last year's option exercise and the availability of their much bigger line-of-credit ($17M and no LTD). This should give them the kind of 'room for maneuver' they are going to need, in order to have some chance of making the new acquisitions successful. I don't think this 40 year-old business is about to go bust. Their basic business seems to keep staff/management comfortably in a job but clearly earnings are very spotty and the new initiatives will increase their risk exposure. Yes, certainly, there is a lot more risk going forward because of the new US initiatives (look at the share price a few years ago when they last tried the US market - good for a while but eventually a disaster, bankruptcy and reverse split!). Let's hope they have learned from the School of Hard Knocks. I am going to hold my remaining position - at these prices, I view it as a kind-of non-expiring call option but I won't add until I can get some feel for the new businesses. <<But now this year their big thing is something called Bean Bag Bears? Doesn't look to me like GRIN will be seeing double digits this year.>> I don't recall you predicting the runs to double digits in '98 and '99 on this board, so I take your prediction for 2000 with a pinch of salt ;) PS 'Fraid I have no clue on Dragonball. Happy trading, Frank McV