Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XBrit who wrote (24641)	4/7/2000 9:34:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Julius, the growth is not really that great it average maybe 17% or so, which is great, but not justifying the 50% increases in capacity some Asian companies are putting on. It is also much slower than the growth in booking of equipment, and the current rate of booking will still be much greater than the cash flow generated by the chip industry. My point was that this build up is supported by heavy borrowing, and if the Fed's effort to slow the economy (5 consecutive rate increases and more coming) finally succeed in slowing the economy, by the time this capacity is put on line, the growth rate of demand for chips will slack (probably by mid 2001 if not earlier) and bookings for semi equipment will go below a billion on a monthly basis (probably before the peak in chips demand). So a peak in semi equip stock prices between Oct of this year and January of next year is well within that scenario. Zeev

To: XBrit who wrote (24641)	4/7/2000 6:27:00 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Julius (semi OT) - since your post regarding conditions in the semi industry referred to the Klic board, it would be equally appropriate to note another post, made by crystalcharisma earlier in the week, displaying Klic's huge anticipated growth and incredibly low valuation (http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7079976&tid=klic&mid=8475&sid=7079976). The implied PEs are both less than 1/2 the sector average. As noted elsewhere today, this sort of market anomaly doesn't usually last for long. Since it's lowest point on Tuesday, the stock has gone up 50%. This could very will be a harbinger of things to come BTW, I've been reading Bonderbill's (and kburgs's) posts on the Yahoo Klic thread for ~9 months. BB's post is the latest in a series that's gives powerful, almost incontrovertible, evidence that this semi cycle will last another 2-3 years and will be very, very strong.