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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (26025)	4/7/2000 5:54:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68160

Good advice! hardrightedge.com ********************************* April 6, 2000 8:00pm est Market Closing Report: Thursday: The Nasdaq continued its oversold bounce hitting a high intraday of 4324. There is still room on this bounce to 4500 to 4600 area and that would be the place to consider unloading your non-blue chip nasdaq stocks. The market tone is better but at the same time wiser - therefore if your expecting stocks to come back like they always do you better think again. The leaders will likely charge back and mask the under performance of the general market. I would suspect that 75 to 90% of the non blue chip nasdaq stocks will never see the highs they saw in the frenzy and will be heading into the dot com or technology graveyard never to be heard again from. Remember about 3 months ago on this site I had the dot com graveyard (including pictures) well were finally here. It will get a lot worse so be sure to reserve your tombstone early for your favorite dot com or tag along technology stock. If your not going after blue chips in technology or dot com world you will likely have nice wall paper for your stock certificates as that game is up. Also I fully expect the economy to show signs of weakness that will start showing up over the next 3 months and there might even be a need for a rate decrease by the Fed to help boost confidence. The rate hikes, as mentioned last night, don't work in a casino environment. When people are accustomed to getting 300% on their money they don't get too concerned with the small rate increases by the fed. In the past rate hikes mattered. Why? Well that's simple the stock market was for investors not speculators. The average return was maybe 8 to 12 % and any move on interest rates materially mattered as bonds, CD's, treasury bills were competing for some of the stock market's money. Now the rules have changed and to say your in anything safe is frowned upon and ridiculed. Well things might be shifting back to the good old days where "the stock market made some sense." The recent action in the stock market will actually be a long term plus as we might slowly be getting back to investment basics and away from the casino. But we still have many stocks that need to finish heading into their own private abyss. Once there out of the way that lost capital (the gamblers) will be out of the picture and it is likely we see a return to more stable and safer investing public - who really is in it for the long run and not just saying it and doing another. Yes folks the good old days might finally be on the way back (value investing). Have a great trading day tomorrow and we will see you back on Monday. Have a nice weekend. Cheetah..

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (26025)	4/7/2000 9:15:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68160

Harry, here goes one of my morning cup of coffee economic jags. Many tech charts, if charts as a class of indicators are reliable, show considerable speculation and potential weakness. How much of this is a result of overall changes in the market versus a mania specific to techs/nets/.coms/bio's is the most critical question because that answers whether we will run higher or as you suggest, be in a secondary meltdown this summer. Lets take a systems approach.. the whole system of money and value in our economic system. In general: Value, money, the quest for profit.. take many forms in our system including the value of labor, talent, invention, taxes, real estate, commodities, patents, debt instruments, stocks, derivatives.. and on and on. The value of these various groups changes over time in complex ways we obviouly don't understand, but its fair to say there's some need for balance. One asset class can become so over valued that the structure and stability of others throws the whole system out of wack, phase, balance, whatever analogy you wish.. the overages in one screws up the functioning of the whole such that it will self correct... for good or bad (no judgement here). Its important to note we aren't in a closed system, which most people fail to think through, but an open system that evolves to accomodate excess and opportunity, I'd even go so far as to say the system evolves taking the shape of whatever is opportunity and excess... we are constantly restructuring ourselves to capitalize, and many structures of our system are canibalistic to any weakness.. .... thus we find, in the stock market, that YES, techs can easily get crazy and be historically overvalued for a very long time without collapsing like a tulip mania. The momentum players are right, it can go on and on at ridiculous valuations. We also find that NO it can't, because other parts of the economic system compete succesfully to take away that money/valuation or a structure in the system cannibalizes excess. Either way, high flyers periodically collapse like we've just seen, and their collapse makes people re-calculate what the risk is to be in them versus being at risk in other parts of the economic system. Conclusion.. there's still a feeling that one's at risk by not being at risk, that there's more to be gained being in a risky stock market than being in bonds, gold, real estate, etc. The reality of this general belief can only be supported in the long run by an accomodative money supply so that everyone has 'cards' to play with, a continuing dramatic business expansion in mo-mo sectors so that growth and earnings stimulate higher expectations, and that the fullest employment provides a salaried cushion enabling the greatest number of people to speculate. Jim