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To: Jeffry K. Smith who wrote (11568)4/7/2000 9:27:00 AM
From: Jeff Vayda  Respond to of 29987
 
For a quite Friday: Introducing New Satellite Services
By Roger Rusch, President, TelAstra Inc.

(Thanks Phillips Telecon)
Jeff Vayda

Transforming the world with new technology has never been an easy task. Humans
procrastinate. Older technology survives. Unless obvious benefits stand out, few users will adopt
a new idea immediately. Stubborn or reluctant consumers may ignore apparently great inventions
or innovations.

Most people need time to appreciate a new idea. The telephone was invented in 1876, but it
took 70 years before 25 percent of American homes had telephone service. Mobile telephone
service was introduced in 1948, but the growth surge in mobile telephones occurred 35 years
later. Even then, it took over three years before one million users adopted "cellular" service and
after 17 years, only about one American in four uses cellular.

The satellite industry is introducing several new services that require consumers to embrace new
technology. Mobile telephony, radio broadcasting and broadband Internet access must win over
subscribers. There are four factors that must be considered for new satellite services.

1) Economic Advantage - New satellite services must compete effectively with terrestrial
alternatives. Customers must conclude that a new service is affordable. This means that the
airtime prices must be about the same or even less expensive than terrestrial alternatives to
attract users. Ubiquitous service is a major advantage to a small addressable market. The issue is
fair pricing. Few disadvantaged users will agree to pay exorbitant airtime or transmission rates.

The service quality must be comparable to terrestrial services as well. The service should not
have irritating characteristics like call disconnects or service interruptions. Satellite time delay is
annoying in the case of telephony. Customers typically abstain rather than suffer inconvenience.

2) Compatibility with Vested Interests - In the complex world of business some customers
are also competitors. The satellite industry has been forced to form alliances with competitors.
The earliest users of satellites were telephone companies that operated undersea cables in
competition with satellites. Later on, cable television services used satellites for distribution.
Today, satellites contend with almost every telecommunications service. Actions taken by the
giants of telecommunications can have a decisive impact on the satellite industry.

3) Visibility/Selling & Advertising - No product can reach a large market if potential
customers don't know that it exits. Advertising was created to preclude the comment: "We have
never heard about the service." Iridium did a great job of publicity. Almost everyone knows
about Iridium, but fewer people have heard of Inmarsat or Globalstar. We were bewildered by
criticism of Iridium for excessive or premature advertising.

4) Social Value/Prestige - In the earliest days of cellular, the mobile telephone became a great
status symbol. There was a small industry of ersatz car antennas that created the impression of
success for the imposters.

The satellite industry has been able to maintain a glamorous image for 40 years. There is a
continuing allure to space and satellite activities that is a great asset. I am frequently asked when
it will be possible to make a cellular telephone call through satellites. If the mobile satellite
services were truly competitive, there would be a reasonable market supplying services to elite
buyers. It is possible that we will yet see conspicuous consumption in the less developed regions
of the world when somewhat more affordable services become available.

Roger Rusch is the president of satellite consultancy TelAstra, Inc. He can be reached at
310/373-1925 or via e-mail at RogerRusch@aol.com.