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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (102921)	4/7/2000 2:10:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 1576318

John, - AMD is currently selling all major OEM's except Dell, so Dell would be the only major new customer AMD could capture for growth. Selling to business market can be the major growth area. The way AMD should go about it is to somehow induce HP / Compaq / IBM to offer Athlon based "engineering workstation", or something like "graphics workstation", which would basically be a top of the line PC with Athlon / Thunderbird chip. - MP sales will grow a finite number, that we don't know, this year. In order for AMD to sell more processors beyond industry growth, I would guess they have to take share from Intel. Of course that's the goal but there is more: Athlon will move from unporfitable K6 to profitable Spitfire, increase ASPs to $100 or more. - If Intel is either having yield/production problems or is capacity constrained, and that situation ends, what will that do to AMD sales. AMD's opportunity is to take advantage of better bin splits of the existing Athlon line, which will hopefully improve even more with Spitfire / Thunderbird. Joe

To: Road Walker who wrote (102921)	4/7/2000 2:36:00 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1576318

John, <I would like to know how you see the rest of the year play out, through Q4. Looks like 10% quarter over quarter growth for AMD 4th to 1st, do you see that continuing?> If Dresden ramps well and AMD can get a good chunk of commercial designs the 10% q-q growth will be too low. With good execution, a growth rate of 10-20% per quarter is entirely possible for rest of the year. Chuck

To: Road Walker who wrote (102921)	4/7/2000 3:55:00 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576318

John - RE: "I'm curious where you peg the future revenue growth rate for AMD, and where it will come from." One thing to keep in mind is how important Spitfire will be. Spitfire will be faster than the Celeron at the same clock speed and it will have no problems whatsoever with MHz this year since it is based on the Athlon core. In February of last year, AMD had 51% of the retail market. This was solely K6-2 based, but AMD's share went down because of production problems. The K6-2 gained lots of marketshare because it was cheap, had comparable MHz, and offered marketing advantages over the Celeron such as 3D Now!, a 100MHz bus, and a larger L1 cache. Spitfire will build on this by also being a "seventh-generation" processor. By the time back to school buying comes around, Spitfire will more than likely have a platform which has a video card built into the chipset, like the Celeron's i810 does now. Spitfire systems will probably cost as much as Celeron systems but they will offer much more performance than the Celeron can dream of offering. This is just Spitfire. Thunderbird will be what the Athlon should have been from the start and it will also have a nice performance advantage over Cumine. Then come the DDR SDRAM capable chipsets in Q3 or Q4 which will further the Athlon's performance advantage and allow the Athlon to enter new markets with 2-way systems. And so Chuck doesn't feel left out, ;) mobile Athlons are coming in either Q3 or Q4. AMD has never been in the high-end mobile market so that is an area where AMD will get new marketshare. A lot of these new products depend on Dresden's successful ramp. Lately, we have not heard anything bad about Dresden. In fact, analysts are surprised it is doing well. AMD has said yields are very good. "If Intel is either having yield/production problems or is capacity constrained, and that situation ends, what will that do to AMD sales." This is something we have to look out for. We will have to listen to AMD's and Intel's CC to see what they forcast for demand the rest of the year. "I would like to know how you see the rest of the year play out, through Q4. Looks like 10% quarter over quarter growth for AMD 4th to 1st, do you see that continuing?" Q2 depends on what AMD says, but Q3 and Q4 should be big because of the seasonal growth. A couple of things to keep in mind - * flash is VERY strong right now. Niles is projecting AMD will have revenues of $1.4B in flash alone this year, up 80% from last year. * the only Athlon product AMD is selling right now is the ... Athlon. As I said, later this year will bring Athlon derivatives which will push the Athlon core into new markets Remember when we were saying "It really is different this time" ? We weren't lying.