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Technology Stocks : Echelon Corporation (ELON) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lone Star who wrote (1762)	4/7/2000 6:50:00 PM
From: hueyone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3076

Lonestar, Thank you for your excellent reply. It always a pleasure to hear from an optimist. A few comments on your comments follow: chiding all the "dumb" investors for not seeing things their way, the "right" way, I am certain there are a number of very intelligent and successful investors invested in ELON. You may be one of them. I'm not saying you're a bear- I'm just saying that there can be more to investing than the numbers, especially ones based on forecast. I own a number of very richly valued tech stocks myself: QCOM, NT, CSCO and INTC to name a few. A couple of emerging techs I own are LHSP and WIND. I would consider buying any of these tech stocks again at prices close to current levels, and in some cases have. I favor a combination of GK analysis (novice here), story and prospects analysis, numbers analysis---backwards and forwards, and relative valuation analysis. Depending on time constraints, sometimes my analysis is much more thorough than other times. With regard to ELON, I need to do more DD with regard to the company's prospects, i.e. listening to the conference calls, reading more news releases etc. As to your financial analysis, anyone with a modicum of experience could, and has, done the same. Judging from my clicks around SI the last couple of months, very few people bother to do this and many regard financial analyses as totally irrelevant. So what, pray tell, is driving the stock price? IMHO, short term movements in the price of a stock has absolutely nothing to do with the stock price in the long run. Momentum players, day traders, chartists, shorters, three minute story stock buyers and general Naz psychology are all very infuential in the short term movements of stock prices, especially with regard to small caps like ELON. (Some people are very good at profiting from these movements; unfortunately, I am not one of them.) The .19 next year? I have "faith" Echelon will blow that away, and the rate of revenue growth and eventually earnings will be of hockey stick proportion. Any more specificity as to why you figure they will blow away earnings would be appreciated. Thanks again for your optimistic reply and hope you are thoroughly enjoying this fine recovery in the Naz and ELON stock price. Have a great spring weekend. Best Regards, Huey

To: Lone Star who wrote (1762)	4/7/2000 9:23:00 PM
From: FatSam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3076

I have been following the discussion as to the valuation of ELON and I thought that from a historical perspective I would post a link to an excellent post on this thread from last fall. I found it intriguing at the time and thought it would be appropriate to again reference it as there are many new ELON investors that may not have seen it. Regards. Message 11920168

To: Lone Star who wrote (1762)	4/8/2000 8:18:00 AM
From: Heeren Pathak	Respond to of 3076

LoneStar, The discussion between you and Huey is really a difference in style. Investing in Elon at this price with these valuation levels is a speculative bet. Clearly, Elon has some very compelling technology. However, the market for this technology has been slow in developing. At current prices(65), the market cap for ELON is about 2.2B. This is closely comparable to the price of Interwoven (IWOV), which is a very fast growing Internet firm in the very fast growing B2B space. While ELON has great revenue potential, it remains potential until earnings start showing a trend. Yes, anyone that waits that long will miss out on some of the potential gains. However, the benefit is that the risk should also be lower. Heeren