Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flatsville who wrote (24124)	4/8/2000 9:44:00 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

Def-- Or does the recession signal only ring when US10 yields < 30MoTBill yields which only occurs when the yield curve is inverted to begin with?...so the crossing of US30 yields and 30MoTBill is of little importance? Thanks,

To: flatsville who wrote (24124)	4/10/2000 8:11:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

This morning the 10Yr/3Mo yield is negative with the former at 5.83 and the latter at 5.88. This is a highly unusual occurrence generally fostered by Fed tightening. In the past, such an inverted curve has forecasted recessions with tremendous accuracy. One has to be cognizant, however, of today's supply situation and recent flight by institutions into US governments. I find it hard to believe the strong real growth we've experienced will brake so hard that two quarters of no growth will emerge next fall. Nonetheless, caution with stock holdings is warranted. There are a lot of traders who apparently prefer less- than-6% note yields to higher current returns on cash or higher expected returns on stock.