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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Verve who wrote (4062)	4/8/2000 9:37:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 34857

Let's get the timeline straight, so there's at least one thread on SI that recognizes the importance of the DDI decision. There are about seven threads in total denial about what really happened. 1. Around March 20, Nihon Keizai reports that DDI will choose W-CDMA. The company denies that any decision has been made. This is just a newspaper report, so it could be a misleading leak. 2. However - during the following week, shares of Nippon Comsys rocket up as Kyocera dips. The interpretation: Japanese stock market is pricing in a W-CDMA decision from DDI. This has an impact on component suppliers. 3. March 30 - Bloomberg reports that DDI has chosen W-CDMA: quote.bloomberg.com Here's the key quote: "DDI and its two rivals chose W-CDMA over a competing standard from Qualcomm called cdma2000 because the development of that technology has been delayed, the executive said." This is a DDI executive speaking to Bloomeberg. An executive of a merged company consisting of three Japanese CDMA operators. And he is delivering a stinging public slap to Qualcomm. Why is a DDI executive slamming cdma2000 to an interview granted to Bloomberg, one of the leading business news organizations in the world? Here is how Bloomberg characterizes W-CDMA: "The technology, which NTT Mobile Communications Network Inc. co-developed with Ericsson AB and Nokia OYJ, is an advanced version of a technology called code division multiple access, a form of spread-spectrum, which is a kind of digital communication technique that has been used by the military for years." The importance of the point 2. above is this: Nikkei was shocked about DDI's decision. It started pricing in the W-CDMA decision after Nihon Keizai leaked it. Until then, investors had assumed that DDI will not adopt W-CDMA. Nikkei is talking, Verve. Listen to it. The operators are talking. Listen to them. Do not listen to what the vendors are saying - listen to the market. As you poignantly commented: "surely you don't think DDI REALLY has their mind set on WCDMA". You are right: the Japanese situation is almost incredible. What is happening there goes directly against everything Qualcomm has said about cdma2000. Asia is finding out which 3G standard is really FUD and which can be implemented starting this summer. And Nokia's stand on W-CDMA, so much derided and ridiculed on SI, is being vindicated. I can't begin to tell you how badly this damages the credibility of cdma2000. How strong the reaction in places like Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia is right now. Yet US business publications are acting as if nothing has happened. The code of silence on this topic at SI is extraordinary. Except for one thread, where there is still room for international debate and open dialogue in the Nordic tradition. Most of the other threads are cloaked in silence as far as the real 3G market development is concerned... the silence of the lambs. That's why this Nokia thread is like a window to the world; an opening from the stuffy backroom of incestuous US-centric IT gossip. Tero