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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (45399)	4/8/2000 7:00:00 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 99985

Next Week's Market Forces By Dan Green 4/7/00 11:59 AM ET As investor's reassess the recent wild ride in equity markets, the focus will start with a bevy of earnings announcements Monday through Wednesday and shift to inflation reports at week's end. Profit reports will come fast and furious from firms in all sectors of the economy. Financials DLJ, Fannie Mae, and PNC Bank and market-cap leader GE report Monday, along with Time-Warner and dozens of other major firms. The action will continue Tuesday, and peak on Wednesday and Thursday with Advanced Micro Devices, Delphi Automotive, First Union, GM, and numerous other firms. The shock of 10% intraday swings in major equity indices has put a damper on the IPO market, with fewer tech issues expected to price barring a complete Nasdaq recovery. This slowdown in supply growth will be balanced by the end of lock-up periods that held back insider selling on numerous IPOs that came to market last year. As the week progresses, attention will shift to Thursday and Friday's Producer and Consumer Price Index reports. Both measures of inflation are expected to slow from last month and remain tame overall, with energy price increases beginning to slow. Any upside surprises will hurt bond prices and ignite suspicions that the Fed is far from done with its tightening campaign. The Fed funds futures market has unanimously expected a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in May for months. Last week's stock market gyrations broke up the consensus on Fed action after May, however, so the markets are once again looking at economic data for clues on upcoming Fed moves. Estimates for the Fed funds rate at the end of summer range from 6.25% to 6.75%, with our forecast at 6.5%. The Treasury bond market faces upcoming inflation news from a position of strength, as long bond yields remain low and below short-term rates. The rest of the bond market has been trending weaker as mortgage agency debt has lost some of its luster, and commercial paper has been responding to Fed tightening more quickly than has the supply-constrained Treasury debt market. The incapacitation of the Japanese Prime Minister has had little net effect on forex markets, since little change is expected in the government's ineffective short-term policy. Oil prices have dropped quickly since the OPEC meeting on news of higher-than-anticipated inventories. Prices should stabilize near $25 per barrel going forward, absent news of dissension within OPEC. dismal.com

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (45399)	4/8/2000 11:48:00 AM
From: violatrader	Respond to of 99985

OT OT Hi Dennis So much for my brilliance as a trader. I almost lost everything, but survived to keep playing the game, and now I'm much smarter for having made so many bigtime mistakes, hopefully having learned from them all. Last weekend I re-read Confessions of a Stock Operator. That's my favorite stockmarket book. It helped to read about his ups and DOWNS. I WILL build my account up again, but just a bit more cautiously. I am in cash for the weekend. On a much brighter note, Nathan is compiling his list of law schools to apply to and Rutgers is being considered, so We were talking about you. His list so far includes Duke NYU Columbia Fordham StJohns USC UCLA Perperdine and some I'm forgetting.