To: puborectalis who wrote (94479 ) 4/8/2000 10:17:00 PM From: gizmo&jack Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Leaving for a week. Finally bought CMRC and FDRY, both a little higher than I would have liked because I waited for the employment number, but I have no fear with regard to either of them. (I'm going on vacation in the Caribbean so I can't even watch them). It's funny, the market is a continuous learning experience now. Lesson I learned Friday: Economic data means very little anymore because it can be interpreted any which way. It's all in the tone of the market. If that data had come out on Tuesday, it would have been disastrous because people would have focused on the payroll number which beat estimates significantly and at over 400,000 was extremely strong historically. And wages, which Greenspan has noted many times as one of his primary concerns, also came in above estimates. But people were in the rebound mode from Wednesday and Thursday so they decided to focus on the unemployment number which came in at 4.1% and not 4.0% and the fact that wage increases were still low at 0.4%. Market reaction is becoming impossible to read lately, but so be it. Anyway, with regard to CMRC and FDRY, someone answer me this: why is CMRC trading at half the value of ARBA and FDRY trading at 1/3 the value of JNPR? Thing I keep saying to myself in these treacherous times: show me the money!!! Part of me is kicking myself for not having bought SQNM in biotech land or AETH and SVNX in wireless land. I was really close to buying one of the latter two actually because I actually do believe in wireless. Problem I have is with the word believe though. That's what these sectors are all about. They trade at the most absurd valuations of all based on phenomenal growth projections. And I wouldn't want to be holding them the day these projections change. (1) There will be lots of competition in this space. (2) Did anyone notice that PALM revenue or PUMA revenue did not grow at a dramatic pace over the last quarter. Just a thought. Now back to FDRY. You can tell me that JNPR has the potential to grow at a much faster rate because this is what the belief is, but is that being demonstrated? FDRY grew just as fast last quarter and has higher revenues and significantly higher earnings/share and yet is trading at 1/3 JNPR's market cap. Also, it's whisper number earnings are .11 and that is merely equal to last quarter, so it would surprise me if they don't blow that number out of the water like they did last quarter. Also, recently out of lockup had to put some selling pressure on the stock. And the JP Morgan analyst went ga ga over them on Thursday as they have a new high end product which will help them compete against CSCO and JNPR. This seems like a pretty low risk/high reward play here and CMRC is a no brainer. That's all for now. See you all in a week. G&J
