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To: DownSouth who wrote (3041)4/8/2000 4:22:00 PM
From: KevRupert  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
Value Line, pg. 4988 (3/31/2000):

"...But the stratospheric P/E ratio is hard to validate, and prudent investors must question its sustainability". Noah Goldner - in the weekly stock review. (Please read entire article for all of Noah's comments and concerns.)

1999E eps .21
2000E eps .40
2001E eps .70

I have cut back my exposure to NTAP due to the high multiple. The company is dynamic and a leader in the NAS market. But the stock is trading at a 200x P/E multiple to 2000 estimated earnings, and 114x P/E multiple to 2001 estimated earnings.

Per Noah: EMC, HWP, SUNW aren't a major NAS factor, but are growing in importance. This increased competition, along with any spring/summer tech selloff, increasing interest rates, and continued excessive P/E multiple on NTAP make it difficult to hold in any large part of one's portfolio.

These comments only apply to investors concerned about stock valuation, and not necessarily to long-term investors. Good luck.

Just my opinion,

Respectfully, advalorem



To: DownSouth who wrote (3041)4/10/2000 12:42:00 PM
From: HDC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
DS, Hi! RE:"I am expecting this quarterly to be very, very positive. Therefore, I would not count on a post-announcement drop."

The past few consecutive quarters (beginning Q2FY99-Oct'98) have seen Y-O-Y growth rates of 70.9%, 71.9%, 80.3%, 80.0% 90.0%, 100.1%. How positive are you and your contacts for this quarter? By "very, very positive" do you mean 100% or perhaps something much higher?

Best,

Duncan



To: DownSouth who wrote (3041)4/10/2000 1:45:00 PM
From: kas1  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10934
 
looking forward, is that as the capacity of filers goes higher (above today's 1.4TB), margins will be squeezed as disk drive content becomes a larger portion of the system cost.

They have been "warning" about this for years, haven't they?

To worry about shrinking margins from increased capacity is to forget that what matters to fundamentals is not margins in percentages, but earnings in dollars -- it's better to sell more expensive systems (more profit), even if the margin % is lower.