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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (45430)	4/8/2000 4:21:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Respond to of 99985

Zeev, I did not intend to say that the hydrocarbon landscape is grim. I also did not to intend to establish any price for energy. My comment was that the United States can not be energy independent with current technologies. When we modeled energy independence for the States at every turn we ran out of resources. Not sufficient oil, wood, coal, natural gas, cement to build power plants, dams, etc. to feed our requirements for energy of all kinds and combinations. As I look back at our model we underestimated the requirements for the growth of energy use that we have experienced in the US. We also modeled huge increases in efficiency assuming the contribution of natural technology developments and using processes like coal conversion. There was nothing in the world we could find that would make this nation independent for its energy needs. I agree that other nations have resources that we need and until a serious breakthrough in a new technology to generate energy we will depend on other nations for part of our energy needs. We are vulnerable to say the least, but as long as this country is a super power we will be able to get the resources we need. I also agree that the oil producing nations will hold the price of oil at the level where there is no incentive to pursue new sources for energy. One break through that I think that would help us become energy independent is super conductivity at normal temperatures. I am sure there are other technical break throughs that could accomplish this. I did have hope for the breeder reactor, but this did not reach the stage of an acceptable proof of concept. Joan