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To: babayabada who wrote (995)	4/9/2000 11:46:00 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Welcome and Thanks for your first post on SI. I turned off the fixed font function so your post would be easy to read. << Message #995 from babayabada at Apr 8 2000 8:00PM Hi Sam Sara, Although I believe your opening statement is accurate - "The uncertainties involved are an order of magnitude greater than in the standard technology sector," I've got to disagree with many of your takes on biotech. You say that no gorillas have emerged and there are no products tied directly to human genome data. Amgen, Genentech, Biogen et al. are the gorillas of this industry. Just because they don't have market caps of 100B, understand that this is an emerging industry. Soon they will be there, competing with large pharmas. At that time the industry will have to redefine itself - will there now be a few huge conglomerate health care companies, or will the bipolarity of pharma vs. biotech remain? Biotech history is rich. Recall Genentech's report of being the first to clone human growth hormone and insulin in 1978. In 1982, recombinant human insulin became the first biotech drug to be marketed when Genentech licensed it to Eli Lilly. Almost all drug research performed today has something to do with human genome data. Whether you're introducing new restriction sites into plasmid DNA for recombinant proteins, or genotyping patients for inclusion into the latest clinical trial, or putting OJ Simpson on trial - everyone stands on the shoulders of this data. Has cra or glgc sold data that has resulted in a drug? No. But science, like art, is an interconnected web of ideas and methods. All of it relates back on itself. Your fear of using biologic agents on ethnic groups misses the point. In our lifetime, we will clone humans. How should we feel about that? There are much larger political and ethical issues that have to be dealt with than the ones you propose. This to me is quite a rapid pace of development, not glacial. And last, as for an indicator for the recent explosion in biotech. I believe that it just simply achieved a critical mass; many things all came together at the same time. But comparisons of biotech to the internet three years ago are real. For long term investors, go with the companies that have products on the market. But for people who pay attention and can profit from market momentum, there is enough attention on biotech now to realise huge gains. Thanks for the discussion. Tony >>