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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Margaret Mateer who wrote (23619)	4/9/2000 5:33:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

Margaret, Thanks for the post. . . History does have a way of predicting the future. . . and I use it daily to help make predictions. However, accurately predicting future moves takes a combination of indications, beyond merely the historical data. Market sentiment is important, as is pending market news. . . and technical indicators. But in this case, the data I feel that is most compelling in predicting the market over the next month. . .has more to do with money flow and seasonal trends. I believe we will see a surge in money flow this week as we near tax day. . . we sure did last year. . .and the year before. But following tax day, the volume generally dries up as does the money flow. And as the major players head for their summer hideaways, we should see a general weakness in the market, which will be led by techs. Here is where I differ mostly from Chucks read. We are not that far off the lows of last Tuesday. A broadbased decline on low volume, led by techs after earnings week. . .with the fear of the FOMC meeting, mid-May, weighing on things. . coupled with the still overvalued techs. . . which I predict have a LONG way to sell off yet from here. . . [again as last year]. . . sets us up for circumstances that could lead to some extraordinary lows. Now whether the panic sets in this time or not, I cannot see. . . typically this time of year, the volume is so low that we just drift slowly lower and lower. . . And whether or not the Nasdaq reaches the lows set Tuesday, the damage will be done on the most popular tech issues. . . not necessarily CSCO, INTC and WCOM. . . .but rather VERT, ICGE, RMBS, VRSN, BRCM, EXDS, PMCS, etc. . . and these big leaders of this last tech season may see extreme drops that may or may not be reflected in the Nasdaq composite. . . as MSFT, WCOM, ORCL, CSCO, INTC and YHOO can hold up the composite index by themselves. . . [though I would not be a holder of CSCO or INTC through the coming correction] Again, however. . .as I sit back and envision this coming down. . . . I think we break lower. . .with further panic. . .and the Dow in tow. Thanks again for the opposing view, Rande Is