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To: Eric Wells who wrote (99577)4/9/2000 1:47:00 PM
From: Victor Lazlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
<< I have one acquaintance who was wiped out this week - most of his net worth disappeared when his margin positions resulted in forced selling on Tuesday - he now is vowing to never trade in the market again. >>

Ouch!

<<If you have enough investors lose enough money and experience enough pain, then investors will start to realize that the market doesn't necessarily provide easy money.>>

I believe that's true, and the key is the two "enoughs" in your sentence. IMO, lots of investors or traders losing some money will just result in even more risk-taking as they vow to recoup their losses. Based on the rebound we've had, I don't think enough were hurt enough.


<<I opt to accept truth number 2 - and as such, I believe that stock prices will eventually settle at a point where they represent accurate and rational valuations of the companies they represent. >>

Maybe so Eric, but it will never be consistent across the board. There are many great co's on the NYSE that have attractive valuations, decent yet moderate growth, and pay dividends. And they'll still be there next week and the week after, because most investors seem to want the "volatility " that only nasdaq can offer.

I'm not defending this environment. But I think the only thing that can really affect the casino kind of activity is the coming additional rate hikes by the fed, and even that may not do it. The economy is more than healthy, bond rates are ok apart from the inversion, and inflation still is almost non-existent.
Victor