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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike E. who wrote (94501)	4/9/2000 9:44:00 PM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 108040

CTXS..."A metaview of Citrix by: techboynz2 4/8/00 2:57 am Msg: 10799 of 10824 Sorry for a long first post, but as an IT type, I'm so long on Citrix (despite the price bumps) that I can barely see the other end. Here's why... 1) Markets: CTXS Metaframe is arguably the best product of any here and now to enable companies of any size to reduce the cost of owning PC's. Companies are buying Metaframe because it saves them real $$$ in support and hardware, and they can prove it on paper. Secondly, Citrix appear best positioned to dominate the future ASP market. It's not a given, but they have the inside track, because ASP is really just thin-client concepts run riot. Who knows of a stock that's got more going for it than that looking 3-5 years out?? 2) Management: These guys IMHO are the Lazarus team of the industry! They survived the fact that they began on OS/2 just before IBM ditched it. Then 2 years ago everyone thought CTXS was dead when Microsoft announced their license to use NT 3.51 in Winframe wouldn't be renewed for NT4. But the CTXS team emerged from that with an agreement for MS to include THEIR core features in every copy of MS's NT 4 Terminal server product. My understanding is that that agreement still has 3.5 years to run. On top of the money they got for providing MS with the multiwin component for NT/2K, they have the whole range of products (with what I regard as the BEST BITS, esp. ICA) still entirely under their own control to sell on top. Now, with that revenue secure, they're moving to make sure that they're not only linked with MS - just in case (witness Citrix for Solaris, and ICA clients for almost every desktop Operating System there is). IMHO they're some of the most savvy players in the industry - they've consistently taken the hand they were dealt and turned it to gold (sorry about the mixed metaphor). So I'm bullish that they know what they're doing with the ASP market and the direct sales model. Anyone can throw stones and point small holes in the glass, but the real question is whether the glasshouse is getting bigger and stronger, and it sure looks like it is to me. Protocol: Typically they talk about 40-60% performance improvements from implementing ICA (which you can only get by buying CTXS Metaframe) over RDP (which you get with the core MS products). What this means is you can put perhaps 7 clients on the same sized network link instead of 2, for example, which saves ongoing $$$ for a company. That's without considering all the metaframe application publishing features that make it almost a must-have if you're going to do thin client in a medium-large company (I heard a quote from a distributor: "most companies try to do thin-client without metaframe .. most give up inside 3 months and buy it!"). So this product rocks here today in the real world .. most of the theoretical ASP competition is still on the drawing board. So, I don't think that one or two beginner booth engineers really much worry me (I guess it means CTXS is having to hire too fast .. because they're selling too much!), and I don't worry too much about the MM's working the stock, as long as the trend continues upwards, and I think it will because of the above. IMHO, CTXS is about as safe for longs as you can get in a crazed tech market in the 1-2 year timeframe, because they have the best product and the best management - all the facts and historical evidence point to it...."

To: Mike E. who wrote (94501)	4/9/2000 9:52:00 PM
From: hotlinktuna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108040

Mike....this may help out folks who jumped into CRFH on Friday (like me!)!! Hope so anyway.....I'll predict CRFH hits 34 or better Monday just to see how close I can come or how truly stupid I can look....whichever....tuna