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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wopr1 who wrote (22486)	4/10/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: kumar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

JDSU/Bookham : another opinion : streetadvisor.com cheers, kumar

To: wopr1 who wrote (22486)	4/10/2000 2:53:00 PM
From: Eric Jacobson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Re: Bookham and fiber-optic tornadoes wopr1, As someone who has been interested in the fiber-optic market for a number of years, Bookham is a company that is repeatedly mentioned in the press. When I prepared my HLIT Project Hunt report, I identified a couple of trends that were worth watching - one of those trends is expanding the capacity and reducing the installation and maintenance costs of fiber-optic networks by simplifying fiber-optic components and architectures. This process will reduce the costs of delivering bandwidth, which will further spur consumers to access high-speed internet services, and the tornado will rage on. BKHM is a company that is said to have technology that enables them to reduce certain functions to a solid state. This would be a critical leap forward. If you believe George Gilder, the fiber optic industry shares many traits with the computer microprocessor industry. As the technology becomes more complex and provides greater capacity, it becomes easier and cheaper to manufacture. Just as INTC became a Gorilla by understanding and exploiting Moore's Law, companies that can exploit this similar trait in the fiber-optice industry can be very successful. From what I know, Bookham could be one of these companies. However, since they've been privately held, there is not a lot of information available. I think BKHM bears watching by Gorilla Gamers. However, we should all use caution because this is clearly a pre-chasm company. It will be interesting to chart their progress through the product adoption life cycle. Taking a position in BKHM at this point is much riskier than owning most G&Ks discussed here. On a related note, I received a mailer from @Home this weekend. They are now offering @Home service for $29.95 a month if you have your own cable modem. This is $10 off the rate if you lease a modem, and only $7 to $10 more than a dial-up ISP. Cable modems are becoming readily available in retail outlets and are likely to be standard equipment in PCs in the near future. IMO, this is an important price point that is likely to result in a surge in demand that will keep the fiber optic tornado in full force.