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Biotech / Medical : Cell Genesys (CEGE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (872)	4/10/2000 2:39:00 PM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1298

Bosco, I see CEGE waiting a few months tops. I expect further downside in biotech stock prices before a possible sustained upside reversal in the late fall. In a few months CEGE should have some very good opportunities and I hope they're looking over potential candidates right now. Further, since they would then be perceived to be putting their cash to good, non-dilutive use, it should help the stock price in the intermediate term. CEGE has already demonstrated a little aptitude for selling high, let's see if they can buy low. Cheers, Tuck

To: Bosco who wrote (872)	4/18/2000 5:44:00 PM
From: david james	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1298

The value of each CEGE share. 1. $7.80 in cash ($250 million) 2. $12.50 worth of ABGX (4.85 mill shares = $400 million) 3. Gene Activation Technology Currently licensed, producing income and involved in revenue sharing with several companies. Most important in the near future is probably the agreement with TKTX. TKTX has a novel way to produce Epogen. $1.7 billion in revenues is at stake, and whether or not TKTX wins the U.S. patent war with Amgen, they are likely to produce revenues in Europe. CEGE will get a percentage of the TKTX profits. biz.yahoo.com messages.yahoo.com 4. Gene Therapy Cardiovascular disease, Parkinson's disease and hemophilia pre-clinical trials 5. Cancer Vaccines Related to gene therapy, but unlike the hemophilia research (as I understand it), this involves less risk since new genetic material is not injected into the patients. Rather, cancer cells are extracted and a vaccine is developed from the genetic material. This triggers the body's own immune system to attack the cancer. Results of phase II for both lung cancer and prostate cancer have been very promising. Lung cancer vaccine is now in multi-center trials. biz.yahoo.com 6. 220 patents, many producing revenues. 335 patents pending. 7. New late stage profitable product line They are acquiring a new product probably in the next quarter. In the cancer field, but not gene therapy. IR says they are looking over several choices. 8. Revenues and cash flow In addition to the $190 mill gain from the sale of their ABGX shares, CEGE should generate over $50 mill in revenues from the gene activation licensing, patents, and payments from Japanese Tobacco ($45 mill over 2 years in exchange for rights to the cancer vaccines in Asia - JP seems to believe in this technology). Last year's expenses were on the order of $30 mill (before the $15 mill fee for backing out of the merger with Genzyme), so although CEGE is expanding their research, the company is likely to be profitable the rest of the year. Depending on the product they acquire and the outcome of the TKTX patent dispute, this is likely to be significantly higher next year. Also $250 million in cash will generate around $12 million in interest. 9. Earnings next week. The company should have a P/E of around 5 following earnings. They have $124 mill in NOLs to offset against their gains minimizing the tax consequences.