To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (70367 ) 4/10/2000 3:14:00 PM From: LBstocks Respond to of 152472
Alex Cena's MOT earnings preview> MOT:1Q00 Results Tonight-Financials on Target, Tone Likely Positive Salomon Smith Barney ~ April 10, 2000 04/10/00 Motorola, Inc. (MOT $153.00,1-M,Tgt $200.00) Alex M. Cena --SUMMARY:--Motorola, Inc.--Telecommunications Equipment * EPS are likely to be $0.58 versus $0.28 last year. Consensus is $0.58. * Company reporting will reflect the General Instrument acquisition for the first time. * A continued strong rebound in mobile phones is expected, based on refreshed digital product line combined with robust demand for cell phones worldwide. * Mobile phones should experience a seasonal increase quarter to quarter as opposed to the normal seasonal quarter-to-quarter decline; however, phone revenues should be flat due to a product mix toward the low end since new high-end phones just hit the market at the end of March/April. * Semiconductor operations should continue to generate positive income. * Gross margin and operating margin should be 39.6% and 6.8%, respectively 04/10/00 Motorola, Inc. (MOT $153.00,1-M,Tgt $200.00) Alex M. Cena --EARNINGS PER SHARE-------------------------------------------------------- FYE 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr Year Actual 12/99 EPS $0.28A $0.44A $0.53A $0.82A $2.08A Previous 12/00 EPS $0.58E $0.70E $0.79E $1.12E $3.20E Current 12/00 EPS $0.58E $0.70E $0.79E $1.12E $3.20E Previous 12/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $4.25E Current 12/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $4.25E Previous 12/02 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A Current 12/02 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A Footnotes: 04/10/00 Motorola, Inc. (MOT $153.00,1-M,Tgt $200.00) Alex M. Cena --FUNDAMENTALS-------------------------------------------------------------- Current Rank........:1M Prior:No Change Price (04/07/00)....:$153.00 P/E Ratio 12/00.....:47.8x Target Price..:$200.00 Prior:No Change P/E Ratio 12/01.....:36.0x Proj.5yr EPS Grth...:0.0% Return on Eqty 99...:7.9% Book Value/Shr(00)..:37.75 LT Debt-to-Capital(a)21.9% Dividend(00)........:$.48 Revenue (00)........:37420.00mil Yield...............:0.3% Shares Outstanding..:625.0mil Convertible.........:No Mkt. Capitalization.:95625.0mil Hedge Clause(s).....: Comments............:(a) Data as of the most recently reported quarter. Comments............: 04/10/00 Motorola, Inc. (MOT $153.00,1-M,Tgt $200.00) --OPINION:------------------------------------------------------------------ We believe there is unlikely to be an upside surprise in the quarter, for Motorola has already indicated that the first quarter is likely to be unusually strong due to the pent up demand for handsets in the December quarter and most analysts have already factored that strength into their figures. Thus, at best the company could be at or possibly slightly above expectations. Additionally, this will be the first quarter the company is reporting results reflecting the General Instrument acquisition. Motorola should report revenues of $8.4 billion versus $7.2 billion reported a year ago. Our revenue estimates by segment are as follows: Personal Communications, $3.5 billion versus $2.6 billion a year ago; Network Communications, $1.5 billion versus $1.6 billion last year; Semiconductors, $1.9 billion versus $1.9 billion a year ago; Commercial, Government and Industrial, $1.1 billion versus $885 million in the first quarter of 1999; and Other, $1.1 billion versus $873 million last year. We expect gross margin and operating margin for the quarter to be 39.6% and 6.8%, respectively, in the first quarter of 1999.