Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (45516)	4/10/2000 11:08:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 99985

Nice call on the DJI triangle by Cycle Pro- geocities.com

To: Les H who wrote (45516)	4/10/2000 11:14:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Les, i know the ECRI gauge is screaming bloody murder re. inflation. of course that's never going to show up in any of the government stats...

To: Les H who wrote (45516)	4/10/2000 7:02:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

ANALYSTS: CFTC'S DATA SUGGESTS SPECULATORS FUELING BOND RALLY By Suzanne Cosgrove CHICAGO (MktNews) - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitment of Traders report for the period ended April 4 suggests commercial traders, the so-called "smart money," failed to support the recent rally in Treasury futures, and that it was speculative buying that fueled the gains, analysts say. According to the CFTC, commercial longs in T-bond futures fell by 21,770 contracts from March 28, to a total of 340,965. Commercial short positions rose by 1,488 to a total of 392,146. The C-O-T report also showed non-commercial, or "spec," long positions jumped by 13,166 from the prior period to a total of 86,708. Non-commercial shorts fell by 1,308, to a total of 62,036. "This is a clear warning sign for anyone getting long," said Tony Crescenzi, a senior strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. He said factors that could lead to a reversal of the uptrend in the bond market include the stabilization of the stock market, continued economic strength and the Federal Reserve's insistence on a tight monetary policy stance. Scott Winningham, a technical strategist at Stone and McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, N.J., said his firm's C-O-T index for Treasury bond futures came in at -9.79 on April 4, moving further into negative territory from its read of -5.4 on March 28, and showing the largest number of commercial new shorts since December 1998. The data implies commercials see market prices as "relatively rich," Winningham said. "That alone suggests prices of bonds and notes may be closer to a top than a bottom." He added that the same pattern is evident in 10-year Treasury note futures "but even more extreme," with current levels of unparalleled since almost mid-1998. The Stone and McCarthy index is calculated by looking at commercial net longs minus net shorts as a percentage of total outstanding open interest. As bonds go up, commercials have not participated, said Chuck Retzky, a market strategist at Midway Trading in Chicago. "It looks to me like hedger money is still not convinced" that bonds have value at sharply higher levels, he said. As for the short end, Chuck Retzky said the CFTC's date for Eurodollar futures suggests traders covered short positions in the period ended April 4 as the Nasdaq stock composite suffered through wide price swings which reached their most recent extreme last Tuesday. Non-commercial, or spec, short positions in Eurodollar fell by 64,187 contracts versus the week ended March 28. Long positions in Eurodollars also fell, but by a relatively modest 7,670 contracts. >>>Also, bullish sentiment is up to 66% from a low of 17% >>>only several months ago.