To: Dave B who wrote (39509 ) 4/10/2000 5:19:00 PM From: Dave B Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
Humor break... ------------------------------- Whispers and Lies: A week in the life of the great bull market's grapevine. (FORTUNE Investor/The Chatting Classes) Fortune, April 17, 2000 v141 i8 p510 Full Text My name is David, and I'm a chat room junkie. I've been addicted for a week now, ever since my editor told me to spend day and night tracking talk about red-hot Rambus to determine whether there's any validity to what gets said online. You'd think this would be a routine task, composed largely of pointing and clicking--and yawning. But I now understand why so many real investors log on to Silicon Investor, Raging Bull, and Yahoo: They want to climb into the belly of the beast, the guts of the bull market, where momentum investors, well-meaning retirees, and Wall Street pros step around one another under cover of anonymity, each in search of that ideal bit of buzz that can move a stock. Where else can the average guy watch a securities crime take place from the comfort of his own windowless office? You couldn't find better drama on the shelf at Blockbuster: the thrill of people bragging about big winnings, the agony of the shorts, the desperation to get in on the upside and then out before things head south. The only thing is, after several days and nights of surfing and lurking on the three popular boards above, I knew no more about Rambus than I did at the outset. What I found instead was little different from a bunch of frat buddies encouraging each other to drink even more beer. About the only unassailable fact I picked up during the week had to do with the mood of the market: Things were nuts. As for the stock in our sights, we chose Rambus because it is up 400% this year on optimism about its low-cost computer chip technology. When FORTUNE first looked at the company in 1998, its stock was $36 a share. Today the price is around $332. How did it cover so much ground so quickly? Well, here's a look at just one market-week period in March, shortly after the company announced a 4-for-1 stock split. Now multiply it by 67 weeks. Monday, March 20: Details about a negative report posted on a cult site known as Tom's Hardware begin to hit the boards. Investors are groping for answers to a decline in the stock from $393 to $317--the opposite direction of the surging Nasdaq--and they settle on Tom's, which irreverently questioned the legitimacy of Rambus' products. Shorts declare that their day has come. Longs insist a rebound is under way. No one mentions that seven insiders had recently sold a total of 123,000 shares. Tuesday, March 21: More ugliness as the stock plunges to $240. Tom's bears the brunt again, but some messages focus on competition from IBM and concerns about the political tempest brewing in Taiwan. On Raging Bull, one poster calls for the stock to hit $200; another says $150 is the likely bottom. "Nothing warranted the run-up," adds the second anonymous messager. Others recommend bargain hunting. A bold prediction goes up that Rambus, with $8 billion in market cap, should be a $90 billion stock like JDS Uniphase. No details follow. Messages soon promise that Rambus is about to dispute the Tom's article. By Friday, company officials have said nothing. (A spokeswoman says the company doesn't pay attention to chat rooms.) Wednesday, March 22: Morgan Stanley Dean Witter to the rescue! Analyst Mark Edelstone (the latest Turk to give a stock a seemingly outlandish price target) pronounces that Rambus will hit $500 a share in 18 months based on three-year profit-growth forecasts of an astounding 130% a year. As shares climb 31% to $350, chatter discounts the fact that Morgan Stanley took Rambus public in 1997--and still owns shares. Messages focus on just how quickly the stock can hit the big number. Two weeks? One week? One day? "Can someone tell me why Rambus is worth that price?" I query. The response comes in a tidy message with a link to a related site chock full of rosy, but truthful and informative, facts. The sender also cues me in to the zeal behind this stock: "Be ready to change your life after reading this just like mine did." I'm all set to ask my editor for what's left in petty cash when a fresh message pops up: To all who will listen, $1.50-a-share Tanisys Technology "is going to fly." (Um...sure.) Thursday, March 23: Other than a message on Raging Bull predicting the stock will close at $1,000--based on some obscure rule in financial analysis that when Barron's is bearish we should buy like there's a clearance sale at Gucci--all is silent. Lucent Technologies has captured all the attention after someone posts a phony earnings warning on Yahoo. Rambus drops 13, to $336. Friday, March 24: The calm after the storm. Shares barely budge and close at $332. One optimistic investor on Yahoo predicts weekly gains of $25 to $30 a share until the split on May 24. "That's $718 a share," writes a fellow who calls himself Marty. Suddenly, Edelstone looks conservative, and I'm wondering which lucky stiff bought at $240. [BOX] Loose Lips RAMBUS Daily stock price March 10 Rambus announces 4-for-1 stock split March 20 Cult Website bashes Rambus' technology March 22 Morgan Stanley analyst sets $500 price target FORTUNE CHART COPYRIGHT 2000 Time, Inc.