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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (10260)	4/10/2000 5:15:00 PM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 60323

Use caution in predicting earnings blowouts or timing price movements. Zeev and Rocky, "The week before Sandisk reports their Earnings would be nice for a general NASDAQ run and then Sandisk can blow out the Street on the 19th. This would give a nice pop up to SNDK stock." I think we need to be realistic about expectations for earnings. Dan Niles is projecting earnings of only 18 1/2 cents based on his latest buy recommendation. Thus, if we do 20 cents or more there should be some upswing in the stock price. More importantly, the visibility that Dr. Harari provides is crucial. Dr. Harari has been described as an artist at understating things, but he is always truthful and honest. Although usually contained, his enthusiasm can be deciphered from the content of his speech, not necessarily the modulation of his voice. Do you recall the emergency c.c. last September that announced the MOU with Toshiba? There was a laundry list of safe harbor statements (that was only outdone by the latest annual report) that were fired off in rapid succession. After this boiler plate qualification was given he stated, "Having said that, this is a very big announcement for SanDisk." or something of that nature. Do you recall last quarter when we were still impacted by the earthquake and the production yields of the 128MB technology? Well, he talked about all the things that happened and could happen, but then reminded us of the great progress the process engineers had made and that they had learned from their experiences. Now we have 256 MB/D2 in production. This is like getting up from a knock-down punch and rallying back to win the title. Dr. Harari also stated "Hey, we're having fun." indicating that the general mood at the company was positive and that spirits were not dampened by the unexpected events of last Fall (of which there were many). Last summer I went through an exercise of monitoring sales at an Internet site. Each day I would look up inventory numbers and subtract them from the previous day's total to get an idea about unit sales of CF. I calculated some outrageously large number of cards being shipped. Later I learned that many of the Internet store fronts I use (www.onvia.com, www.buy.com, www.egghead.com) use the same company for inventory and logistics. Thus, it is likely that they use the same inventory counts or that inventory can be easily shifted between resellers and not reflect true unit sales. I proclaimed "BLOW OUT IN THE MAKING!" when in actuality the 128 Mbit process and the difficulty stacking chips in the MMC cards was weighing down productivity. I advise everyone to use caution in their predictions. I am now convinced that it is difficult to predict earnings and I have given up the exercise. If you want an accurate assessment you will have to ask Ron C for his educated guess which is usually right-on or within a penny, maybe two. He seems to have the science down. First and foremost, LISTEN TO ELI! Ausdauer