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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 5dave22 who wrote (103542)	4/11/2000 3:10:00 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 1570746

dave, re:<Hey niceguy - can you tell me how you get to $1.07 eps based on 1.1B in revs?> Actually, based on what they said at Q4 CC, I think the breakeven could be as low as $915M. See my reasoning at techstocks.com Even a breakeven of $945M would give eps of a buck if revenues are 1.10 billion. Petz

To: 5dave22 who wrote (103542)	4/11/2000 8:36:00 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1570746

5dave22: Re; "Hey niceguy - can you tell me how you get to $1.07 eps based on 1.1B in revs? I hope you're right, but a quick look at the math doesn't get me over $.70 or $.80." Comment: $0.70 minimum and $1.20 maximum...Main factors in increase from $0.43 are: increment of 400,000 Athys (minimum) will contibute $0.20 to $0.40, higher non-Athy ASP $0.05 to $0.10, and higher flash margins ($0.10 to $0.30)...Also if volume today and tomorrow is over 7 million per day and AMD price remains reasonably stable at around $80, the stage will be set for a record volume day on Thursday (i.e 13 million plus shares) assuming minimum eps of $0.50 (i.e. $0.20 below my min. est. but $0.07 above street estimate of $0.43)and stable to firming Nasdaq! A record volume day on Thursday could easily result in a (successful?)test of $100! (MOT reported $0.59 and trades at $150. INTC, currently trading at $130, is likely to report a Q1 eps lower than AMD, currently trading at $75...so the stage is set for a significant revaluation of AMD shares with any confirmation of record Q1 earnings (2nd succesive record breaking quarter) and the prospect of, come Y2000 year end, a string of 5 successive record breaking quarters!)