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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: milan0 who wrote (103543)	4/10/2000 11:07:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1570407

Mike, I think you make some very nice estimates between consumer and business, Celeron/K6 and P3/Athlon. I think you do a great job showing that AMD really needs to penetrate the business market in order to really increase unit sales. Maybe it's just because the business market has the impression that AMD isn't driving high volumes yet. If that's the case, then the new Dresden fab should do a lot toward helping AMD make inroads into business. I do have one gripe about your estimates. I think your estimates for Intel are a little too heavily weighted toward Celeron. (17.2M Celeron vs. 14.7M Pentium III.) Perhaps it's because you're assuming that every low-end system going to businesses have to be Celeron or K6. In fact, I think there's a lot of low-end Pentium III CPUs (i.e. below 700 MHz) being sold to the business market. Tenchusatsu

To: milan0 who wrote (103543)	4/10/2000 11:54:00 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1570407

Michel, It has been a long while since you posted. Nice post! I was expecting to see KX133s en masse in March (first thought it would be Jan or Feb) and some business penetration to go with it this Q. I definitely am guilty of being over-optimistic about Athlon shipments in Q1. Unless AMD shipped considerably more than 1.2Mu, which I seriously doubt, it looks like the high-end consumer segment for AMD has no dramatic growth left (not withstanding Dell, which is clearly a huge exception). I have been looking forward to top-tier business SKUs in the US for a while and unfortunately that hasn't yet happened. Looking forward to what the management has to say tomorrow. Chuck

To: milan0 who wrote (103543)	4/11/2000 2:16:00 AM
From: ptanner	Respond to of 1570407

Mike: >For comparison purposes, I find the following for INTC sales > in Q1 : > INTC Celeron Pentium > 95% 14.4 14.4 > 40% 2.7 0.3 > 17.2 14.7 FWIW, from Intel's 4Q99 earnings conference call my notes show that in response to an analyst questions the MPU were approximately 63% performance (Pentium?) and 37% value (Celeron?) overall and that these proportions were the same as the prior quarter. PT

To: milan0 who wrote (103543)	4/11/2000 2:30:00 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 1570407

Mike, Interesting analysis. It seems that in the US, the only system being sold to business is the Gateway Select line, and even that is targeted to "small business". I hope the situation is better abroad. One thing that might have helped AMD is the hype about the 1 GHz processors. Regarding your Business vs. Retail, I think the ratio may apply to the US, partially. I think a better distinction would be US consumer / US business / rest of the world. You may be right about US business penetration being < 5%, US consumer probably > 50%, but in the rest of the world, AMD's market share is probably higher. Does anybody have an idea about US vs. Rest of the world shipments of PCs? Joe

To: milan0 who wrote (103543)	4/11/2000 3:41:00 AM
From: Petz	Respond to of 1570407

Michel, just read your post about AMD market share in the business and retail sectors and the difficulty of selling 6M Athlons in Q4. Near the bottom you have this chart for Q1: Sector AMD K6 Athlon Business 5% 0.8 0.76 Retail 60% 4.1 0.46 4.9 1.22 * units in millions if % not indicated This would seem to fit the data for Q1 pretty well, if Athlon sales really come in at only 1.22 million. But I think some of your numbers are off. Specifically, AMD doesn't have 60% of retail market, its more like 50%. Secondly, more of the systems sold in the retail market are Athlons than you give credit for. (2) The retail consumers buy mostly low end systems : 90% Celeron and K6s vs only 10% Pentium III and Athlons. If you listen to the Gateway ads, well, they don't even sell K6 systems. The ads from the screwdriver shops are mostly for Athlons, look at my last survey. You said: My maths show that AMD could hardly sell more than 1.2 M Athlons unless it had more than 5% business market share. What does this imply if AMD is to sell 6 M Athlons in Q4? Any comments? First, at least some of these will be the low end "Spitfire" chips replacing the K6 chips. The high end Athlons can continue to grow 50% per quarter, meaning we could be selling 4M Spitfires plus 4M TBirds by Q4. AMD will have at least 10% of business sales by then. Petz