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Technology Stocks : Booking Holdings (formerly Priceline) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (2358)4/12/2000 6:40:00 AM
From: ecommerceman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2743
 
When Success on the Web Is a Bad Thing

April 12, 2000

New York Times
By KAREN J. BANNAN

Priceline.com, the hugely successful electronic commerce player, made its name by letting customers name their own price for airline tickets, groceries and home financing. The Norwalk, Conn., company even created somewhat of a buzz with its hip television commercials starring a tongue-in-cheek William Shatner.

But with Priceline.com's success and media attention, has come a downside. Just last month, the site scaled back expansion plans for its WebHouse Club grocery shopping service, too busy digging out from an avalanche of unexpected customers.
The WebHouse service anticipated a customer base of 100,000 in its first 90 days. Instead, the site, which launched a limited New York-only version of the service on Nov. 3, handled more than 300,000 customers over a three-month period. Today, the site has more than 500,000 members who continue to tax the service's infrastructure and customer support, said Jay Walker, Priceline.com's vice chairman and founder.
"We slowed down out city roll-out to catch up with customer service," Walker said. "It's funny, there are times when you build something and you can roller skate around the site it's so empty. Growth is really impossible to predict."
Until last December, the Internet seemed like a Field of Dreams for online retailers. All the components for a home run were there, but there were not enough consumer players to rouse a good game. Today, the mantra of "if we build it they will come" finally seems to be paying off for some.
But, like Priceline.com, some sites are finding too much success -- enjoying exponential Web growth, and growing pains.
Just last month the online brokerage firms Charles Schwab, DLJ Direct, and E*Trade suffered separate system failures because of excessive traffic or infrastructure problems.
In addition, the online booksellers Amazon.com and Barnesandnoble.com were inundated with 2.5 orders per second when Stephen King's new online-only work, "Riding the Bullet," was posted for purchase and electronic delivery on their sites. The traffic was so heavy that many potential customers were unable to access the sites at all. The problem may have been that six months ago, analysts nearly wrote off downloadable books like King's, saying they were unwieldy and unlikely to gain popularity. As a result, neither site was prepared for the onslaught. Not only have these cases meant that lackluster products and services have disappointed customers. They also indicate that the customer-service systems designed to catch slip-ups and rectify problems are also failing, a problem one analyst says was two years in the making.
A 1998 Forrester Research study of 50 e-commerce sites found that only 30 percent of the sites expected to integrate customer service by the end of this year. The forecast was not far off the mark.
"The sites have been setting themselves up for failure," said Bob Chatham, a senior analyst with Forrester. "It's amateur hour right now and all of these retailers are having to admit that they are really working in the dark. No one has been able to balance enough back-end and customer resources," he said.

Priceline.com's Walker is the first to agree. The excessive traffic at Priceline.com's WebHouse led to problems like lost server connections. In addition, during high traffic periods, Priceline.com customers have been unable to access the site at all, leading to a rash of customer support phone calls.
The company continues to increase its customer service efforts, but much of the site's customer service is still automated. To rectify both situations, Priceline.com has increased its customer service and hardware investments by more than 300 percent, spending more than $20 million on hardware upgrades alone, Walker said.
"Priceline.com as a site has grown five percent compounded a week for 24 months," Walker said. "To put this in perspective, our growth and traffic is like your local supermarket having to handle 400 customers in an hour. The lines would be out the door. As fast as we add servers, the customers keep on coming."
Analysts stress that the most important thing retailers can do is add customer service representatives to give customers the same service that they hope to find in a brick-and-mortar store.
Some customers are demanding the same or higher levels of customer service that they find in the offline world, said Kirsten Cloninger, an analyst with Cahners In-Stat Group. "People want to be able to tap someone on the shoulder, even if it's a virtual tap," Cloninger said.
Retailers and analysts agree that the next 6 to 12 months will be crucial. Successful sites, they say, will be the ones that build their infrastructure and provide attentive customer support. If retailers anger customers now it will be hard to get them back, something Priceline.com's Walker said he knows first hand.
"If your customer has a problem, they are going to tell all their friends," Walker said. "Our customers are telling 16 friends and relatives about their experiences. If it's good, that's good, but a bad experiences means that 16 people are hearing about that failure. When you live on the Web, you can die on the Web, too."



To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (2358)4/23/2000 7:05:00 PM
From: ecommerceman  Respond to of 2743
 
State of the Web: Surfing Net Stocks in Shark-Infested Waters
By James J. Cramer

4/23/00 1:54 PM ET
Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
Opportunity knocks in a hideous and ugly fashion sometimes. Right now, it's knocking on the Web. The speed with which this Net sector crash happened has taken managers' breath away. In some cases -- such as the one dealt with in this week's excellent Business Week cover story on Value America (VUSA:Nasdaq - news - boards) -- it may take companies themselves away.
But it won't take them all away. It's time to ask basic questions of survival and originality here. So let's go back to the time before the dot-com revolution -- a time before Tom.com, Dick.com and Harry.com, a time when the world was Webless.
You must ask yourself: Which companies have a proprietary position, a proprietary data base or a proprietary set of customers -- something that simply can't be duplicated?
I know it seems wide open, but let's think for a second. Take a look at your mail. Notice all of those catalogues? Ever invest in a catalogue company? Crummy business. I've done it a couple of times. Almost always a heartbreaker, I'm afraid. (Catalogue company CEOs, don't email me! I've suffered enough at the hands of your stocks! Don't compound the injury!)

Now, remember, every e-tailer is essentially a catalogue company. I don't care if they sell dogs, cats, books, trinkets, cosmetics, sporting goods, computers, flowers, CDs, DVDs, movies, tickets, cars ... anything. It doesn't matter. They're just catalogue companies. Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq - news - boards) is a big catalogue company, so big that others might want to tap into its network. So big that it will survive.
And the others?
Take 'em or leave 'em, because a funny thing happened on the way to e-tailing heaven: It turned out to be as hard as retail. I spoke this truth for a year and nobody listened, but suddenly the new low list is littered with e-tailers and I wouldn't own one of them -- except maybe Amazon -- and that's because it's still got a real stock. So, that means a huge number of stocks can't be touched.
But how about eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - news - boards)? Now that is a different story. A real story. Nobody ever overtook them. Sotheby's (BID:NYSE - news - boards) was supposed to. Now they're fighting for their corporate lives. And priceline.com (PCLN:Nasdaq - news - boards), which I am long, was supposed to, but it hasn't. Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - news - boards) was supposed to, but it hasn't. Maybe eBay won.
If I worked at a newspaper I'd be doing everything I could in the hope that eBay's stock goes down, because eBay is the classifieds of the future. How much is that worth? Ah, now that's another question.
Maybe less than eBay is selling for now. Maybe more. Push. But if it goes down, the case can be made that eBay will remain proprietary. As for all of the other auction and reverse auction companies out there, I don't know -- there seem to be too many for any or all of them to remain that way.
We think priceline is proprietary because it has lots of patents on a method of buying that seems to have traction with people. Is it worth what it's selling for? As someone who is long priceline, I answer: No, it's worth more. But I have no illusions, it's being brought down by its dot-com legacy.
Sometimes there are a couple of players still duking it out and the winner could be big. Monster.com and HotJobs.com (HOTJ:Nasdaq - news - boards) are in a pitched battle. My money would be on HotJobs when the smoke clears, but the smoke hasn't cleared yet.
The one thing I am certain about is that all of those well-funded projects that are still on the drawing board or in their last stages before going public will have a rough time going forward, which is the only good news for that sad list of stocks I just recited.
This is why we have to go through this exercise: The surviving companies that can make it to profitability, or at least staunch the flow of losses, are being checked out right now by traditional companies that never got going on the Web. If we can find them before they get bought out, we'll make money either on the takeover game or because they do actually have a shot at profitability.
Watch these next quarters closely. See who is losing less than expected.
See who might get profitable. See who can make it on their own. Any such company is likely to be picked off in the next few months by someone else. And that's what I want to own.