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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike E. who wrote (94819)	4/11/2000 8:47:00 AM
From: stan s.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108040

Last time the nasdaq slumped in the 20% plus range was in the summer of '98. That dip brought it all the way back to early '97 levels. A a very painful retrace and a lot of people thought the tech surge was dead. That set the stage for an immediate reversal and powerful comeback that doubled the nasdaq in 4-5 short months. The only way to take advantage of a move like that is to have money when the bottom hits. Seems to be a growing consensus that we retest the 3700 area (give or take) as part of the cleaning out process. Good thing about that is the consensus opinion is usually wrong. Bad thing about that is if we test 3700 again, why not complete the rounded top and take us down to point of origin of the frenzy? The gap from point that broke the nasdaq to the upside of a triple top, around 2830 in late October. Still a gap there. Not a prediction yet, but awareness of certain possibilities that once seemed remote might be the key to survival. As for today and this week, panic is a hard thing to judge, I do give us a chance of testing 3700 but I peg it as an equal chance that we move basically higher from here through earnings...and then slump after April. Futures are down at the moment, I'd rather them start weak and see confidence emerge as the day progresses rather than watch confidence erode as the day wears on. It's when confidence begins to break that panic sets in. Good luck to all. Preserve some capital. Stan