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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terrapin who wrote (4109)	4/11/2000 5:24:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

<Even if Nokia, on its current path, is unable to produce quality CDMA products when do you think it will start to affect Nokia's bottomline?> The effect is right now! Nokia would be doing even better if they had got CDMA humming. They've been on it for a decade now, having been an early licensee with QUALCOMM. The problem seems to be that CDMA is simply moving too fast for them to make chips, software and handsets themselves. The more CDMA market share increases, the greater the bottom line effect on Nokia. <...What is your timeline for the bad CDMA ju-ju coming down on my Nokia investment?> I doubt that Nokia will let the situation develop too far before they jump in big to all forms of CDMA and swing their powerful R&D, design, manufacturing and marketing onto all forms of CDMA. They just have to choke a bit and pay the piper first! I guess that sticks in the craw. They also want to hold the GSM line as long as possible, so there is some conflict in their minds as to when to move big time into CDMA. The customers such as Vodafone and their subscribers will create an irresistible force. Nokia is NOT an immovable object. 3 years from now, if Nokia does not have CDMA humming, Nokian shareholders will be dismayed. I doubt that will happen. Bad juju will come with CDMA though, because of swarms of CDMA subscriber device competitors and inevitably reduced margins, even at the high-end. The success of Nokia has been largely on a fairly straightforward wireless voice phone market, now to be ramped up further with GPRS success. Motorola and Ericy stayed with Darth Vader handsets while Nokia went human. Success breeds success, so I expect Nokia will continue to do just fine! Even with CDMA juju. They might even do better with CDMA, but they'll have to go like hell. Maurice PS: This is NOT a suggestion that the current share price is a good buy price. I have no idea whatsoever about the share price. I have no idea what the P:E is and don't care. I don't own and won't buy Nokia stock. I'm interested in Nokia because of the effect on QUALCOMM, being potentially a very big customer.