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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (45571)	4/11/2000 9:02:00 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

I have been trying to find ways to look at the obvious increase in volatility we have been seeing since the beginning of the year. Standard volatility indicators make it hard to see plainly where the volatility is grouped IMO. So, I plotted simple "Open To Close Percent Change" in MetaStock and came up with what I consider to be interesting results. Understand that I am new to trading so everything looks interesting to me :) My sample goes back to Jan 1, 1987. At 6.4%, yesterday was the 5th worse open-close down day and the worse since Aug 31, 1998. In the sample I count 143 days with an open to close swing of 2% or more. They account for about 4.3% of trading days; very roughly one per trading month. Here's the thing for me. Out of these 143 wild days, approximately 50% have occurred since the beginning of 1999. So far this new year, we have seen 28 such days and this accounts for nearly 20% of all such days in the sample. Further, I count 68 days from 2000 in my sample, so more than 40% of trading days this year made the sample. Just some fun with numbers. Have a good day everyone. --Allan