To: MikeM54321 who wrote (6809 ) 5/26/2000 10:29:00 AM From: MikeM54321 Respond to of 12823
Re: MSO Stats- Cable Telephony Subscribers Thread- Here's what I think may be an optimistic forecast. The writer doesn't make any distinction between circuit-switched or IP voice over cable infrastructure. So I read the stats with some hesitancy. Especially the forecast made for when packet voice is supposed to be readily available. But then again, I am not able to keep accurate track of what is happening in cable land of foreign countries. Those figures are not readily obtainable. Maybe the projections will turn out to be accurate afterall. Especially if the VoIP timeframe proves to be accurate. -MikeM(From Florida) ________________________Cable Telephony to Skyrocket ZDNet- I used to be a cable guy. But a couple summers back we dropped cable service so our kids wouldn't zone out in front of the tube on nice days. A new trend, though, has me thinking twice about cable: Telephone service via cable TV is set to explode in the next few years. Here's what the emerging cable telephony market will look like according to a new, exclusive report from Cahners In-Stat Group: Worldwide Cable Telephony Forecasts 1999 1,000,000 subs 2000 2,500,000 2001 4,800,000 2002 8,000,000 2003 14,000,000 2004 20,500,000 -Worldwide subscribers will skyrocket from less than a million in 1999 to more than 20 million in 2004. -Revenues will jump from $293 million to more than $7 billion in the same time frame. What's fueling such heady growth? A cable infrastructure that promises unified telecom services -- video, data, voice -- at lower cost than what you currently pay separately for these same services. CHALLENGES But cable operators face some heavy lifting. Here are some of the challenges In-Stat sees: -Putting in place the technology to deliver voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) technology. -Finding the capital or personnel needed for roll out. -Convincing small operators they can achieve a decent return on investment from a voice service. Nonetheless, In-Stat believes that by 2002 the technology, equipment and standards will be in place to make VoIP the de facto standard for delivering cable telephony over hybrid fiber-coax (HFC) networks . Despite the challenges, most major operators are eager to launch voice service, and consumer response to date has been encouraging, In-Stat says. In places where telephony has been introduced, between 10% and 15% of current cable TV subscribers have signed up for the service in the first six months. Cable companies have also been undercutting prices charged by local phone companies for extra phone lines, and they're offering discounts on voice/Internet bundles. Consumers love this competition, which will ultimately fuel the expected rapid growth, In-Stat says. Of course, I should be honest. The real reason to get cable service again at my house would not be to make phone calls. It'd be for ESPN or TNT sporting events.