To: Boplicity who wrote (13663 ) 4/11/2000 11:11:00 PM From: lml Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19080
How much of a threat is IBM? IBM is always a threat, and so are the likes of CMRC, SEBL, ITWO. An outstanding company like ORCL is always mindful of the competition. To borrow from Andy Grove, "only the paranoid survive." And you will agree ORCL is undoubtedly a survivor. But the uniqueness of ORCL, and what one should also weigh when evaluating the threat of competition is vision. IMHO, IBM's foray into database management for Internet-based applications is reactionary one rather than visionary one. IBM likely sees continued rapid growth in Internet-based computing as a serious threat to its lucrative high-end mainframe business. It perceives a need to establish some form of bulkhead in Internet-based computing to fend off a likely eroding market share of combined server and mainframe business as more & more business operations presently running on mainframe, slowly migrate to Internet-based computing. So how successful will IBM be? Well, I think IBM will be successful in terms of achieving a greater market share of combined server & mainframe computing than it would otherwise but for making a foray into Internet-based database software at this juncture. At a very minimum, I think IBM would view success if it is merely able to retain market share in terms of combined Internet-based and mainframe database computing going out five years. I think the presumption is that internet-based computing is growing much more rapidly than mainframe computing, and that if IBM does not soon establish itself with a viable product in this high growth segment, it will be unable to attain the type of growth Gerstner hopes to achieve for his company. Ellison is a man of vision who has led ORCL to new high growth markets; Gerstener is a man who, IMHO, is more focused on the bottom line, and if he sees opportunities to grow IBM's business, as shown by Ellison"s guiding light for example, he's not going to put his ego in the way of realizing future corporate profits. He's going to go after the growth opportunity. JMO.