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To: Voltaire who wrote (12179)	4/11/2000 5:54:00 PM
From: fishweed	Respond to of 35685

Volt - 1929 taught them a lesson........they don't want to shake you out of the market........just want to shake you out of some of your money........harvestable scenario so-to-speak. fishweed

To: Voltaire who wrote (12179)	4/11/2000 7:44:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

V: In my opinion 'The Houses' are on the verge of pushing the Naz sell-off too far....They could ruin their internet IPO gravy train <G>...The market sentiment for internet stocks has not been this bad in a long time -- it will not heal overnight. If 'The Houses' were smart (and I'm not so sure many of them are), they would be starting to pound the table on the Blue Chip tech stocks and on many of the solid internet stocks. Look at Morgan Stanley and Goldman -- they have racked up RECORD PROFITS due to their aggressive investing in internet firms and by doing a lot of underwriting in that sector. Yet, they will not match last year's profits if they ruin the sentiment for internet stocks...Look at the backlog of IPOs that will start to get delayed...Just some thoughts....I'm NOT worried that those overpaid ANALysts and Investment Bankers will go hungry anytime soon though...;-) How's the view from the porch tonight? Best Regards, Scott

To: Voltaire who wrote (12179)	4/11/2000 11:25:00 PM
From: TigerPaw	Respond to of 35685

bring up 1929 .... it has not been repeated. I want to repeat my lecture, because it is important for investors to understand when and why this bull market will eventually end. For nearly 100 years prior to 1929 there was amazing technological change in the U.S. and the world. That change came to an end, in my opinion, in 1904 with the invention of the airplane. That was the last great invention. Prior to that steam engines, fed railroads and shipping, requiring communication which led to electrical advancements of all sorts. There was radio, and photography, and better metals, and self powered carriages. It was tornado after tornado. There wasn't much after 1904. Oh, yeah, there was enhancements and tweaks but the gorillas had come in the major fields and suddenly there were not new, really new things happening. So it crashed. The market spun on the tweaks, and wartime production for a while, but the inventive flame burned out. That's when the 100 year bull market turned into a bubble. The market didn't revive until more wartime production of the same, but with a new twist. A radical new concept in medicine. Drugs that worked! Antibiotics. There was also chemical enhancements in fertilizer, plastics, and pesticides. That and the wartime (and cold war) budgets kept the economy going through the 1950s. The next new thing didn't really start until the 1960s with computers. Even as the steam engine didn't really get things cooking for decades, the computer didn't get cooking until the 1980s. Since then there has been trend after trend, tornado after tornado, all of which base themselves on the digital revolution. The key is, it's still happening! The digital promise has not been met. So long as it's still happening the market will be in the long term UP! (There can be local recessions for even a year or two). The time to panic, and pull your money is when several years go by and nothing but incremental tweaks are produced and you don't read about any really new ideas. (A few nuclear bombs could alter the trend, but otherwise it is UP!) Enjoy and prosper from the digital revolution. It won't last forever. TP