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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (23706)	4/11/2000 10:00:00 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Rande Is: Thanks for your response. My only regret is that I have been a bit slow to "read the tea leaves". I did not "profit often", or as often as I should have. Sadder but wiser. Under ordinary circumstances, I would agree with you that a "long-term hold" philosophy may not work anymore in the tech stocks. However, when I crunched the numbers, selling tech stocks that I bought in Oct. 1999 didn't make any sense. I KNOW that they will continue to decline over the summer; however, the tax loss of 40% of profits by selling now at the lows makes less sense. More important, by selling now, one gives up the ability to sell at the more favorable 20% tax rate for ANOTHER 12 months. Thus, when buying back the techs in Oct. 2000 and selling again in March or April 2001, I would get hit for the 40% tax rate of profits for the second time in a twelve months period. In my case, doesn't make sense. However, having said all that, I WILL sell off all of my techs in Spring 2001 and, despite the unfavorable tax consequences, only play techs seasonally from Fall 2001 onward. Tech values or special situations will be the exception to the rule. One final comment: I think the real problem is that the staggering returns over the past three years have spoiled us and we have forgotten how difficult it really is to make money in the market. As one much wiser than I once said: "Don't confuse genius with a bull market".