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To: Big Dog who wrote (64353)	4/11/2000 11:41:00 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

Big, IEA really is a strange bird. The energy arm of the OECD, it appears to be the only organization attempting to gather worldwide energy statistics. The funny thing is those who are not members of OECD and therefore not reporting energy S/D numbers to IEA.....China, Russia and the rest of FSU, all of OPEC, all of Asia sans Japan and possibly Korea and all of Latin America. FWIW, their Monthly Oil Report came out today. Definitely sees more of a supply/demand balance than we do around here but if they can guess, why can't we? <g> iea.org John

To: Big Dog who wrote (64353)	4/12/2000 8:32:00 AM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

Big, the unreliable reporting of supply and demand stats wrt crude is one of the things I really really hate about the oil industry. The semiconductor industry has the reasonably reliable book to bill ratio, but the oil industry has what? Alphabet soup, that's what! I guess crude is a commodity that is so politically charged that the real state of supply and demand cannot be known until long after the fact, and sometimes not even then. Remember how long it took to solve the "missing barrels" conundrum? I recall when I first came on the board and read Slider going on about the "missing barrels" and said to myself "what the hell is all this stuff about missing barrels. Doesn't anybody have a clue?" I just try to use Doug Fants 1:1 gdp:oil demand ratio to calculate demand numbers and try as best I can to determine OPEC and non OPEC supply, and from that try to determine a secular trend. The fudge factor can be large, unfortunately. So, what analyst out there is really good at this kind of thing, Matt Simmons? You tell me. Who is consistently right? Somebody public, I mean. Clearly, it ain't LK or Moody-Stuart. Do you have any idea why Moody-Stuart was so consistently and so publicly wrong about crude prices? Was it overweighting the OPEC cheat factor? Did he have an ulterior motive?