Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (45672)	4/11/2000 11:54:00 PM
From: el paradisio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Michael,Rotation was. until the last decline. Damage was done. Look around,everage decline outside of ours Nifty Fifty is 30% or more.I do not think that you will get that rotation right away. Confidence in Tech is over for some time and it has to be restored. My NDX chart is out of the balance now( I am using dynamic chart pattern analysis) and at first it has to come back to that balance. Another words,trading range for the time being is the most probable. If you see DOW going down and NDX going up,you can assume that rotation has started.It can be triggered by unknown yet factor. If both Tech and Old will go down? Possible, but at first DOW will go to 11,900. Not before. el paradisio

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (45672)	4/12/2000 1:56:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

michael finsterwald, I agree with the rotation out off and weakness in Dow. That will start next week. SOme of the sideline money also will move in the Naz. Naz will try to go to the old 5000 highs again in the next 2-3 weeks but will likely fail. Then come May I think the Naz and Dow will retest last Tuesday's lows and because of summer weakness will likely break it and move down to the Naz 200 D Mov Aver. Difficult to see beyond that and state whether they will rebound for a summer rally or tank further. It will depend on inflation, wages, oil etc, IMHO TA Message #45672 from michael finsterwald at Apr 11 2000 11:20PM <<As long as IND will continue up NDX should recover at least to 4150.Now NDX is to weak to do anything by itself. If IND will start to decline,which is very likely (TRAN,DRG are facing resistance),I do not see what force will push NDX up.>> So far it seems they have to sell the old economy stocks to buy the NDX so I am looking for weakness in the DOW to confirm some short term rotation by the big boys into the NAZ. So If I see the NDX moving up while the DOW is going down then Im going to assume it started (at least short term). At least thats the way the roller coaster rotation has been playing out over the last few weeks from my perspective. I think money bouncing between the old and new, without a lot of new money going in to either. Eventually I think once the old economy stuff is topped out and theres no place to go, both (tech and old economy) will go down together. M.