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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: slacker711 who wrote (22573)4/12/2000 12:25:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Slacker,

2) Why is the advertising revenue number so low? I assume that their are at least a couple of million IPG's in the market....but advertising revenue was still only $800,000 (though ramping fast).

I have a terrible memory for numbers, but the number of advertising-capable IPGs is significantly smaller than total IPGs because they are relatively new. Add that to the fact that advertising on a guide is still in the infant stages of marketing and you've got a pretty good idea about why the total dollars spent on advertising is still comparatively low.

3) Is there anything special about Thompson that may have accelerated their adoption rate ahead of other Gemstar licensees?

Thomson is the largest television manufacturer in the world and a long-time Gemstar partner of the highest order. Their RCA and ProScan brands have been heavily advertised in the print media emphasizing Gemstar inside. On the other hand, I don't know that I've ever seen adoption data coming from Sony.

Geez, I hope I can bring Stew over here for awhile. We really need him.

--Mike Buckley



To: slacker711 who wrote (22573)4/13/2000 6:29:00 AM
From: NY Stew  Respond to of 54805
 
slacker711,

1) Does anyone know the total number of IPG's deployed so far?

This needs to be broken down into first generation and second generation IPG numbers. The first generation numbers are difficult as GIC never paid Gemstar for its native guides although a favorable court decision has them paying for the deployed analog guides retroactively and the digital case is headed for trial soon. SFA was Gemstar's largest licensee the last few years but they have failed to successfully renegotiate and are in litigation. (One reason why the Q over Q projected numbers are not reflective of the true growth.) All DirecTV OEMs are licensees. Charlie Ergen (DISH) and Henry have similar tough characteristics in my view and are butting heads just under the radar. I have heard that they have an understanding but Henry is requesting monies for past sins and Ergen wants such matters forgiven. The MS-Echostar DishPlayer is royalty bearing for Gemstar under the MS agreement and falls into the second generation category as it is advertising and T-commerce capable and yields recurring revenues. All DirecTV STBs deployed within the last 18-24 months are second generation upgradable via software download and negotiations are in process.

The second generation IPGs are much easier to quantify and fall into two subsets, owned and licensed. Americast, US West, AOL TV, WebTV Plus and DishPlayer are current licensed products/services. GuidePlus and StarSight are in-house applications with TV Guide falling into one category or the other depending upon the merger. If the merger is approved I expect the StarSight service to be phased out and/or incorporated into the brand name. The numbers I have at hand are TV Guide Interactive with 3.2MM subs and 2MM for GuidePlus.

2) Why is the advertising revenue number so low? I assume that their are at least a couple of million IPG's in the market....but advertising revenue was still only $800,000 (though ramping fast).

Critical mass. I have heard the number to be ~5MM to sell a CPM model to Madison Ave. The current advertisers pay relatively low set fees because the GuidePlus base is sub critical mass.

Regards
Stew