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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Vector1 who wrote (7854)4/12/2000 2:10:00 AM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen  Respond to of 9719
 
Ooops; didn't see that one. Good reasoning. I'll still hold though and I might buy more as it seems to have found support.

Thanks, Torben



To: Vector1 who wrote (7854)4/12/2000 8:56:00 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9719
 
V1,

<<I was disappointed with the liver tox in R121919. I know they have a back up CRF antagonist but it is still a setback. Moreover I am not sure that I am convinced that liver tox is specific to R121919 and not an issue for all CRF antagonists.>.

I didn't find single evidence that CRF-R1 antagonist has any connection with liver tox. However, there are thousands example when DRUG trigger high liver enzymes level (metabolite induced and/or self activating mechanisms) and make pharmacologist unhappy. So, liver tox is (imo) drug and not target related. Also, I do not think that liver tox is primary reason in Janssen decision to discontinue R121 development and search for new candidate.

Janssen did renewed R&D collaboration (search for new candidates) with NBIX before expanding open label PII trial and start of the higher doses PI safety trial, so they were aware of possible compounds (R121) specific problems/limitations. Nonetheless, they confirmed target and therapy value with R121, and run for back-up ahead of ongoing trials. Decision hurt J&J more than NBIX as they are now behind in race.

<<I agree that the Insomnia program has great potential and that that drug alone could justify a higher value than $21, however, Phase III will not start until 01 and we could have a wait for news that will power the stock.>>

Maybe and probably. But, I do not think that clinical trials time-frame (in this case start of the PIII) is more important than assurance that program/candidate has great chance to be successful. Until NBI34060 reach this status (market is conservative until large pts PII result confirm drug value) stock price may fluctuate. I do not see it as reason to sell. They have plenty of early programs that may surprise market.

Miljenko