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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DOUG H who wrote (11350)	4/12/2000 8:03:00 AM
From: avanti77	Respond to of 19374

Well, Doug... I always like it when you don't pull any punches and express your opinion. Bring em down, accumulate, bring em back. This market is an efficient vehicle for transfering wealth. The interesting thing here is that this behavior has generally been a fairly predictable feature of the market. I think the thing that surprises me most is that traders are surprised when it happens. If you look at the historical picture (chart) on almost any large cap tech that you like, you can see the dip around the week of April 15. The difference this year is that instead of testing the 50 day ema, many stocks tested the 100 day ema, while some internets with no earnings fell off the chart. It has been about the macro picture, and I think it's prudent to take a good look at that. There was a ton of loose money injected into the economy last year to minimize any y2k related bank runs or panic. When the fed started systemically tightening to take some of that back, it wasn't a surprise. I may not agree with what the "talking heads" are spewing, but if enough of them are saying the same thing, I'll know that whether I agree or not, the money is going to shift. As a trader, I don't fight that, because my individual account will not move the market. But if the houses execute large buy and sell orders, that will move the market. In other words, it's best not to get attached to any kind of steadfast opinion, unless you're ltb & h. I'm not, never have been. Long term for me is a few months. Tech is my area so I rarely drift over to the non-tech market, but go to cash instead. I also very rarely short stocks, and then just as kind of superstitious thing, I wouldn't short anything I want to go long on when it gets beaten up. A little too vicious for me. This time around, I shorted a stock whose lock-up will end soon, and I thought (think) is too pricey. But I don't tout that stuff. I'm still in 90% cash. I'm glad to hear you're not quittin, because this is the kind of market that makes for better, wiser traders. A bitter pill for many, and one that I swallowed hard my first year of trading. After that, I learned how to go with the flow more easily. That's why I like this thread so much. TA keeps trading logical, and clearheadedness is a trader's best tool. I think it was Guardian who recently posted, "this too shall pass," ... and so it will. Best, Donna