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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brian h who wrote (4143)	4/12/2000 1:15:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

I have a perfect cop-out, Brian - "an industry observer". Being an analyst means you should be able to tell investors what a stock will do after next quarter. It shouldn't mean that; but right now it does. And this is a bad, bad place to be in. Both for analysts and people who love to hate them. I don't know what the e-mail of a certain PW analyst reads like right now - and I don't want to know. Analysts are forced to make short-term predictions and most of them are doing a horrible job. Bad mojo all around. I think that most masochists would gladly turn down a career as Clinton's press secretary to land a telecom analyst job at Paine or Lehman. It's a dream ticket to abuse and humiliation - from the Iridium "buy" to the Motorola price targets topping 220 bucks. Maurice... I really can't tell you what's so hot about W-CDMA. I mean; I have read the glowing reports on cdma2000 and why it's a great bargain for GSM and CDMA operators all around the world. There's this warm, fuzzy aura of "I'd Like to Teach the World to Sing" surrounding cdma2000. Or was - until the stench of a loser started attaching to it. I think it started when DoCoMo began backing W-CDMA so vigorously. Together with Nokia and Ericsson it was able to create an appearance of invincibility. This was backed by the massive R&D package DoCoMo very publicly announced. In their hearts, mobile operators are cowards. More than anything - they don't want to look reckless. That's what sends dominos tumbling when a new telecom standard takes off. I don't know what Hutchison's position was before DoCoMo bought a piece of it - but after the purchase, Hutch has sounded like a believer. DoCoMo is so huge, so enormous, that it can simply buy a chunk of the Asian telecom industry just to get a point across. Telstra is operating both GSM and CDMA networks - but I seriously doubt that it has the courage to go against DoCoMo/Hutchison alliance when it comes to the 3G market. The risk of picking the wrong standard is just too big. If both Japan and Hong Kong form a united front behind one standard, the cdma2000 theme song will change into "Good Night, Irene". Tero