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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (938)	4/12/2000 2:27:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I look forward to Eliades....He's a great technician and puts out an honest forecast. Just have to do the opposite he does when his calls don't materialize. <<chuckle>> The Nasdaq has a chance to turn around here this afternoon, because of the TP I mentioned. But it could also produce just a short-term bottom and no follow through. Somewhere I remember reading..., Pretchter said, if the Nasdaq closed below 4100 all the speculation would be wrung out of the markets and would provide good base for the rest of the year. I'll see if I can find that..? Chip

To: John Pitera who wrote (938)	4/14/2000 10:48:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 33421

John, The Cisco article is one of the great mysteries of the Technology boom and the valuation models that are being bantered around. Cisco represents more then most the basis of the Internet/Business models that are being rethought. In many ways this period is like the 1880-90's, when after the civil war....money and commerce were freed up and the explosion of capital markets were in their infancy, and industrial revolution was expanding. Nobody could see that 35 years later a whole new world had evolved and produced remarkable growth along with W.W.I-II. Today the economic historians can see that the Vietnam War and the military industrial interests had sopped up enormous amounts of capital and intellectual talent. Now there was certainly something of value to come out of this concentration of interests, and those forces are pushing todays expansion along with a more highly intergrated world. Today their is seemingly another era similar to the end of the Civil War exploding ahead of us, and based on the powers of new technology, that this time will include the whole world. Very exciting...! I expect there will be many companies who cannot reinvent themselves and who will surprisingly disappear like Digital and Wang as they fail to capitalize on there success and who fall to better ideas. Will Microsoft, IBM, AOL and Cisco go the way of Ben and Jerry's..., and the railroads..? I expect the Internet and phone lines are already dead meat? One more thought.... These new commercial forces, may not unleash the same problems of inflation that followed the expansion of the 1880's. Even energy may remain a manageable commodity as new technology takes it's place. Chip