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To: Tony Viola who wrote (21869)4/12/2000 2:52:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson  Respond to of 25814
 
Tony: Although I see (and practice) LSI as a trade, I do not think that we are at NAZ Armageddon. My guess is that we will have hit a double bottom between today and tomorrow. Indeed, my play is that we will see the NAZ end the day at or near its lows, which in turn will force some overnight margins calls, which in turn will result in some climatic selling tomorrow morning.

Moreover, I have seen nothing that changes the strong scenario that LSI management has put forth starting at the last CC. I for one am very interested in how "Open Standard ZSP", second generation CDMA, eFPGA, and PSII are going to turn out. At current levels, I do not think that the market has included all of these promising projects in its valuation.

Finally less than a year ago, there was a frequent poster on this thread named Daniel My Brother, who sold at 44 because he had bought two years previously at about 42. (He had also bought some stock at around 18). Afterwards, he appeared on this thread to ask when he should buy back, and on two occasions, I advised him to do so, but he ignored my advice waiting for LSI to retreat to the price that he had sold the stock (at 44). As a result he lost huge money. Well Daniel My Brother, I am once again advising you to reinvest in LSI Logic over the course of the next 24 hours.

Your money will be well spent.

Regards

JH



To: Tony Viola who wrote (21869)4/12/2000 3:15:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25814
 
Money was extremely tight, e.g., I had to put down 30% to buy a house. My mortgage rate was about 14%. Unemployment was very high, and inflation was high teens, as I recall.

Tony, it is hard to get data about others, but inflation was about 3% (had come down from 6%) as evidenced by the following article excerpt about Business Week and Fortune magazine in Jan 1973 :

...

The stock market should go higher still because "prosperity is almost certain to continue," reports Business Week. Fortune says it's "hard to imagine a combination of circumstances that would entirely undo the good work of the past few years, which halved the inflation rate from roughly 6% three years ago to about 3% now."

...

Btw, the 3month T-Bill and the long bond were both yielding around 5% to 5.5% at that time, so if you got a mortgage at 14%, it was probably some years later, not in early 1973.



To: Tony Viola who wrote (21869)4/12/2000 9:54:00 PM
From: John F.  Respond to of 25814
 
AMD's earnings and guidance for the upcoming quarter should help slow if not reverse the selling.
We will probably open down, but, there is a chance that upgrades tomorrow morning will stop
the fall. This afternoon we got good earnings reports from the following:

ALTR .36 vs estimate of .34
ARBA -.06 vs estimate of -.08 (rev up 322%)
EFII .44 vs estimate of .41
ENE .40 vs estimate of .37
FELE .69 vs estimate of .64
FNM 1.02 vs estimate of 1.01
RBAK .05 vs estimate of .02 (rev up 424%)
SEG .20 vs estimate of .15

AMD earnings release CC at ..
webevents.broadcast.com.

Tomorrow we get earnings reports from GM, GE, NYT as well as...

KLA Tencor, Broadcom, Dallas Semi, Microchip Tech, ODP, DCLK,
MMC Networks, MIPS, Diamond Offshore, Guidant, Aerial Communications.