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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (13134)	4/12/2000 4:40:00 PM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

"There is one thing that I wouldn't want to forget at this point in the market cycles discussions. Presidential election years (as one year of the four year cycle), begins with a decline to a low at the end of the first quarter (March, which we've just seen) and there after, rises to a peak at year end. This cycle has been researched by Robert Merrill and the stand out year, in my mind, was 1980 when we had a Market drop and panic sell -off much like this year's. I remember a loop afterwards and then a blastoff beginning in late April with a rising bull mkt. 'til year end (punctuated with a 2 or 3 week sell off in July -August). Anyway, I would be very surprised to see the cycle prediction of a decline to October this year, again. Three years in a row, I think not! and please remember the October bottoms in '78 and '79 (every bit as frightening at '98 and '99) which led to that 1980 presidential year pattern." ttheory.com A

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (13134)	4/13/2000 8:42:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Producer prices up, sales higher (but core PPI up only .1%)/edits: 8:38 a ET Wholesale prices jumped 1 percent in March, the government said Thursday, but excluding the biggest increase in energy prices in more than nine years, the producer price index edged up just 0.1 percent --a "core rate" that was in line with Wall Street forecasts. Separately, retail sales rose 0.4 percent last month and 1.4 percent excluding auto sales, both above forecasts. - Bloomberg details on PPI: bloomberg.com - Bloomberg details on Retail Sales: bloomberg.com