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To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/12/2000 4:57:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 35685

<<Tomorrow we start up big time or I am wrong about the Houses and will never mention them again. EVERYONE JUST HOLD ON ONE MORE DAY. DO NOT BELIEVE THE FEAR MONGERS YOU WILL SEE AND HEAR.>> V: Thanks for the update...it would be nice if your view of this time capsule is correct...;-) My gut feeling tells me we are very near the bottom...Not everything will bounce back quickly BUT the strong Tech / internet stocks will....Strap in and enjoy the ride... Best Regards, Scott

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/12/2000 4:59:00 PM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

A few numbers: Today the Nasdaq close at 3769. The last time it closed below that was on Jan 6/00 at 3727. Before that, the last time it closed this low was on Dec 17/99 at 3753. The intraday low during the correction last week (April 4) was 3649, so we closed just 120 points above that. The Nasdaq record high close was on March 10/00 at 5048. At the close today, it is down a bit over 25% from that high.

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/12/2000 4:59:00 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 35685

For the first time in a long time the premiums on both puts and calls ATM are approximately even. Which really implies (on a dollars to percentage gain/loss basis) that the put to call premium ratio is remarkably high. All the premiums are pretty damn high due to the volatility. "Conventional" wisdom argues this is a bullish signal from here. Not sure I've got the cahones to write a bunch of just in the money naked puts - but if one were inclined to do these things, now might be a good time.

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/12/2000 5:49:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Hi Tom, If you make a bad trade do you have an exit strategy, such as stop loss, like 10% to close out the trade? Also, how do you go about protecting profits? DO you have a preset price sell to protect? Greg

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/12/2000 6:13:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

Net Sector's Carnage Brings a Real Reckoning By David A. Gaffen Staff Reporter / The Street.com 4/12/00 5:00 PM ET <<Right now, a lot of Net investors are probably wishing they could toss their stocks back to the dorm-room geeks who did most of the surfing in the first place. Since peaking at 1333.22 in early March, TheStreet.com Internet Sector index has lost more than 35% of its value, leaving it at levels not seen since mid-November. The spiral in Internet stocks hasn't been kind to many -- even the Internet's "blue-chips," which would presumably include America Online (AOL:NYSE - news - boards), Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards), Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq - news - boards), are all trading far below their historical highs. Now, there is precedent for this: Last spring, the index lost nearly half of its value, around the same time technology stocks in general swooned. But Net stocks recovered and were carried to record highs in late 1999 and early 2000 by B2B and other Net plays. This time, it doesn't feel like a seasonal correction. Many believe these stocks are now in the midst of a true shakeout. Even if the Nasdaq Composite Index re-establishes upward momentum, many believe participation from the Net stocks is going to be limited to the leaders in the various sectors of the Internet economy. Many others in coming months are facing the reality of "merge or die" -- which won't necessarily help their stocks anyway. "I don't expect tremendous participation [in a rally] in the mid- to small-cap Internet stocks that at some point will be fighting for survivability," said Barry Hyman, chief market strategist at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum. As investors have begun separating top-tier Net names from the rest, it's become clear that many of these companies' strategies aren't exclusive to the Net. America Online, now that it's merging with Time Warner (TWX:NYSE - news - boards), is fast becoming just a large media company; Amazon.com will someday be seen as just a retailer. Trees Don't Grow to the Sky AOL's "Steve Case is a pretty sharp guy, and I think he sent a signal to the Internet sector that we were all overpriced," said Jerry Hegarty, chief analyst at Cape Market Research in Osterville, Mass. "He was the blue-chip of the industry, and if he's cashing in and taking the check, it sends a message to investors that these things are way too frothy." The other companies that seem poised to survive are those providing services unique to the Net, such as Cisco and Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq - news - boards), or possibly companies such as Yahoo! B2B stocks don't seem quite as innovative now that existing smokestack industries have figured out how to use B2B for their own purposes. Declining interest in dot-coms has taken the shine out of the "incubator" sector of the Net, companies such as Internet Capital Group (ICGE:Nasdaq - news - boards) and CMGI (CMGI:Nasdaq - news - boards) that look to invest in other Net stocks. Been Down This Road Before Analysts liken the revaluing of these stocks to what happened to biotechnology in the early 1990s, and previously to communications, railroads, automotive and any other industry that had wide-ranging economic impact. While the industry itself may have produced great technological and social change, it doesn't mean every company prospered -- or survived. This isn't something that analysts have failed to acknowledge. Well-known Internet bulls such as Henry Blodget of Merrill Lynch expect 75% or more of existing Net companies aren't going to last. But 1998's and 1999's euphoria yielded many companies that managed to get money through an initial public offering, and now investors are stuck with dogs. So while there are always a few eager investors at the ready to buy Cisco, the same can't be said for stocks such as drkoop.com (KOOP:Nasdaq - news - boards). That situation will only get worse in the coming months, as companies that went public during fall's euphoria will foist more shares upon the public when lockup periods (when insiders cannot sell shares) end. HomeStore.com (HOMS:Nasdaq - news - boards), for example, went public in August with an offering of 7 million shares and peaked at 122 1/4 in January; it will dump up to 43 million more shares on the market in two weeks. The stock closed today down 7 13/16, or 25%, to 23 1/2.>>

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/12/2000 7:08:00 PM
From: aek2000	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

some simple Ta math on NSDQ Composite (help me out here) Septembre and October highs were about 2900 March high was about 5050, an appreciation of 2150, pretty big Jim Willie always likes to calculate 3/8 and 5/8 retrackings he made an excellent point last autumn about retrackings in September1998 and October1999 being 3/8ths if i pull out my little HP calculator and subtract 3/8th of 2150 from 5050, i get approx 4250 if i subtract 5/8th of 2150 from 5050, i get approx 3700 please help me with this, since i was not an expert but wouldn't the technical bottom be about 3700 ? i checked 1998 and 1999, and 3/8ths backtrack works could we be seeing a 5/8th backtrack from March highs ? any other Ta people out there, Pinhi ? Mullineau ? aek

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/12/2000 8:00:00 PM
From: re3	Respond to of 35685

v-do the angels wanna wear your red shoes ?

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/12/2000 9:41:00 PM
From: Gregory	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

If you would have money tomorrow to buy some stock tomorrow for long term holding or long range calls (LEAPS) what is the company you would buy tomorrow? Would you buy 1.LU? 2.JDSU 3.RNWK 5.SUNW? 6.CSCO 4.???? Thanks, Greg

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/13/2000 4:07:00 PM
From: DiB	Respond to of 35685

>Tomorrow we start up big time or I am wrong about the Houses and will never mention them again. V, I think you underestimated margin calls and FEAR. Houses need to keep NAZ low for several days, until at least options expiration day, to flush out all the mo-mo bulls and suck in all the mo-mo and "fundamental" bears. Long-term we'll do fine... JMHO respectfully... back to lurking...

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/13/2000 4:13:00 PM
From: Steve 667	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

"Tomorrow we start up big time or I am wrong about the Houses and will never mention them again." from Voltaire's Post 12446 Well the market did not start up big time today, so that's the end of that. Another conspiracy theory bites the dust. Steve 667 * Oh, no! Not ANOTHER learning experience!

To: Voltaire who wrote (12445)	4/13/2000 4:27:00 PM
From: stewart kagel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

Hi, I love reading the posts here and have learned an awful lot. I'm saddened that we won't ever hear mention of the "houses" from V anymore. Yesterday V said in post 12446, "Tomorrow we start up big time or I am wrong about the Houses and will never mention them again." and then..."EVERYONE JUST HOLD ON ONE MORE DAY. DO NOT BELIEVE THE FEAR MONGERS YOU WILL SEE AND HEAR." Unfortunately, the NAZ closed down over 90 points (2.5%) again. This is very disturbing. When the angels leave us, who can we then ask for guidance. Obviously V is a man of his word. So, no more mention of the Houses. I'm struggling with this. And losing tons of money, to boot. But I will hang on.