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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (45782)	4/12/2000 5:20:00 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 99985

Re gold vs. stock market, in 98 the markets made a double bottom, first in August, then in October. The first time the XAU plunged to 48. The second time it rose to 87. So the relationship is not so simple. If anybody can shed some further light on this topic and predict which way it's going to go this time, I'd like to hear about it. In the meantime I am 100% in cash. Fun-da-Mental P.S. Maybe I answered my own question. Maybe gold tends to go down with the market at first but come back later.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (45782)	4/12/2000 5:24:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

George, the gold market was already closed when the last hour downturn began. however, there WAS some post-close buying of gold: kitco.com frankly, it is too early to say which wave count will turn out to be the correct one. altogether there are three viable alternatives, all of which still stand a chance of turning out to be correct. i think we should closely watch how quickly the sentiment indicators improve during the current downturn to be able to gauge its likely depth. one issue that just won't go away is the truly massive amount of insider selling that's hitting the market day in day out. the possibility of a liquidity crunch looms, as one after the other of the highly leveraged big players loses his nerve...note that the rotation has a somewhat desperate quality. everybody knows how overvalued the market is, and as i always suspected, they realize it all at the same time. i want to take the opportunity to remind the thread that scotty's contrarian call of the much overhyped earnings possibly disappointing has at least partially come true. let me add that i am absolutely mystified by how JPM managed to crank out such a stellar quarter. it speaks to the flexibility of their traders in view of how credit spreads have behaved. nevertheless, overall expectations have been so high, that the slightest disappointments are punished harshly, see MOT. so all of a sudden, the market has ceased to be immune to bad news. the way ppi, cpi and the trade balance are received will be most telling in this regard. interesting times, in the Chinese curse sense...:) regards, hb PS: i'll post more details on the wave counts later...i'm still studying the proposed alternatives, and i'm not really an expert as it were...