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To: Wowzer who wrote (64439)4/12/2000 11:19:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
(OT) Outlook on techs and tech ideas

Ok, looks like the biggest and best are finally taking it on the chin (MSFT, CSCO, SUNW below 50 dma's). Up until now the selloff was mostly concentrated in companies without earnings. Now it's hitting those that are simply ahead of themselves (and there are many). I do think we go a little lower(5-10%), but there will be buyers soon in these big cap names. We'll at least get a decent bounce off whatever low we hit tomorrow or Friday. I think it'll be hard to call the ultimate bottom, but one can play the bounces. I would have to imagine there will be good surprises in tech land that'll shift the focus back to earnings soon. As such I'm looking at the following.

My target prices are merely rough guides for buying. I only own NITE @ 40 currently, but may sell and try to buy lower if we head down fast tomorrow.

My favorite picks would be:

NITE at 30-36
WCOM at 35-40 (Sleeper)
MSFT at 70-75

Good companies, but not cheap

SUNW at 65
JDSU at 65-75
CSCO at 55-60
ISSX at 50-60
QCOM at 100

DSL bounce plays (I think DSL and cable will both do well in bringing people to the internet)

COVD 28, NPNT at 10-14, ORCT 30-35

Companies burning cash, very speculative, but Significantly off their highs (B2B mostly). I would play purely as dead cat bounce plays as they are burning too much cash for me. These were once mania darling. Granted if you look at RHAT's chart you would have thought it would have bounced by now LOL. CMRC's recent bounce was almost 40% (100 to 140). If CMRC hits 50 I think it could bounce back to 100 making it a double.

FMKT at 50, CMRC at 50, VERT at 30, RHAT at 15-20, HLTH at 15-20

Old forgotten internet portals with earnings

ATHM at 20, LCOS at 25

Two stocks that don't fit any of the above categories would be NOVL at 20 and GBLX at 20-25.

BigBull, I think going 70% cash in one day is overkill. I could see slowly shifting into cash if this continues past another 10%. My HRC has gone up throughout this entire correction. We're merely in a stock picking environment imho. However, I understand you desire to protect considerable profits.