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Strategies & Market Trends : Puff Daddy's Mo' Money Mo' Problems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (811)	4/13/2000 12:01:00 AM
From: mph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 896

Here are the facts you supplied: 1) Fed pumped liquidity in 1999 prior to Y2k. a) Foreigners saw USA as a safe haven prior to Y2k. 2) Many hedge funds thought 2000 would see a retreat - particularly the beginning of 2000...many learned traders thought people were holding off profits of 1999 to sell into 2000 because of tax implications. a) These hedge funds shorted. 3) January to mid March was a short squeeze. A great stock for evidence is Rambus. It is well known amongst circles that RMBS was being shorted the hell out of and many pros were forced to cover at substantial losses. 4) Reallocation into larger cash position and out of tech by pension funds, CalPers (my former employer) is an example in mid March. Abby Cohen' Mark Mobeius...particularly Mark, a hero of mine since I was in junior high school. 5) Fed draining liquidity now that Y2k is over. a) Foreigners selling because they see opportunities in their own emerging markets. 6) Intense margin buying by daytraders, hedge funds, and an overall arrogance about man's place in history. 7) The charts. Take all emotion out of the game and go strictly by technical analysis. #1 occurred prior to the end of 1999 and was a topic of discussion around SI. There was also plenty of discussion about #2 before the end of last year. Although I don't follow the short interest figures myself, if January through March is all attributable to short squeeze (#3), backup data was available long before April. #4--public discussion of funds moving to more cash was highlighted by mid-March, but I would bet that information was available sooner. That was also about 2 weeks before you morphed into a major bear. #5 -draining of liquidity has also been a topic of discussion long before April. Plus, investment in emerging markets was touted well before the end of 1999. #6--margin debt. Those figures are maintained and were presumably available long before the end of March. #7--the charts---well, you'd have to be more specific. It depends on which chart you're looking at. Obviously some have changed dramatically over the past month, so I'll give you that one.<g> As far as calling me stupid, that seemed to be the principal point of your first post to me tonight. And I do apologize for seeming to lecture on your attitude. I thought I was offering a friendly suggestion and a different perspective since you appeared to be upset about how you're being perceived. Obviously I was very wrong about that. Perhaps even stupid. I assure you it won't happen again. M

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (811)	4/13/2000 12:17:00 AM
From: Cheeky Kid	Respond to of 896

Okay that's it. You know the lines........I'm so excited, and I just can't hide it, I'm about to lose control and I think I like it..........I love the smell of a freshly suspended account in the morning!!! As a self appointed SI Admin: Subject 23577 I have not suspended anyone yet, BUT, I hear by issue a warning! One of you is going to get suspended and it ain't mph. Regards, SI Admin (Cheeky Kid)

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (811)	4/13/2000 3:00:00 AM
From: IFLY_Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 896

Stock Operator, I hear ya man ... <<I THOUGHT I LOST A LOT, BUT I SOON REALIZED IT'S NOTHING COMPARED TO WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE HAS LOST NOW AND WILL LOSE IN THE COMING DAYS/WEEKS.>> - true, I thought I lost a lot 2 weeks ago ... before the market crashed further and the last 2 days have been hell. It seems like you don't think we are at a bottom yet ... and you may be right ... but what's your take on the medium-term ... i.e. 4 months out will the stocks regain to at least this level? I don't think we are in a permanent downturn ... yes techs are out of favor (understatement) ... but they are still growing and many of them are within quarters of becoming profitable ... we saw it with EGRP today. Old economy companies while profitable have low growth and shrinking margins and how can anyone suggest to keep money in them for the long term (beyond just a sector rotation) ... not to mention their shrinking intellectual capital also ... what, everyone will suddenly buy tons of toothpaste so PG can show some growth? SO many stocks are starting to look good to me now ... stocks I never liked after the went up 100% (before they went up another 200% or more) ... even the likes of VNTR ... I know I'm not the only one thinking this ... I don't think the techs are finished ... I think we will be back ... with a vengeance (I'm very bullish on the tech sectors ... past, present & future) ... however it could be a while. And certain broken stocks are permanently broken ... so in the long run this shake-out is probably a good thing ... too many sh#t stocks and sh#t IPOs caused the market to become oversaturated and far too speculative ... too many friends & family & VC/Incubator BS ... just wish I had seen it coming better ... I did see a possible top and cleaned out some of my internets such as YHOO ... but the b2b's I held ... whoops.