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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andy H who wrote (45900)	4/13/2000 1:50:00 AM
From: IndexTrader	Respond to of 99985

Andy, Excellent post. Thanks!

To: Andy H who wrote (45900)	4/13/2000 2:25:00 AM
From: el paradisio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Andy,I am just looking on a weekly chart and I have to tell you that it does not look great at all. Using Fib. of 61.8 retracement,we have a target 3600. This is also my target, where I can see a short term bottom.I think that we will be trading in that range for some time. As you said no particular support below 3600.The next strong one is at 2900, and here is my lowest possible value of that decline. I think,that the most probably,we should reverse up as soon 3600 will be touch. What is my concern...the speed of that decline, in three weeks 1439 pts!Another words,if we will not get a strong reverse from here....2900 is not so far from 3600. I am with strong economy,low inflation,internet revolution, but what I am afraid is the panic.So far no panic at all, if real selling will start,it can be ugly and nobody will be seeing good earnings,economy,etc.,but only a bubble.EXIT. For now all indicators are pointing down and they will for some time.The only things,what can save us now are: good economical reports this week and earnings. If any spike will come to that market right now,the result can be nasty.

To: Andy H who wrote (45900)	4/13/2000 6:55:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Andy, i disagree with one point. in the cited examples ('73-74, Japan) the economic problems only became apparent as the respective stock market declines were already well underway. in Japan, the bubble itself lay at the heart of the economic problems that ensued after it burst. the US bubble, even though AG still doesn't want to publicly admit that it is one, shares many of the Japanese bubble's characteristics.the main feature is the extreme degree of leverage in the system. if and when the bubble truly bursts, the economic expansion will come to a screeching halt overnight imo. an economy that creates $ 5,30 in new credit for every $1 in economic growth (which is exaggerated anyway due to hedonic pricing), runs a current account deficit approaching 5% of GDP and has the biggest stock market bubble in history (in terms of p/e's, price/book, and market cap to GDP) is normally not well equipped to deal with such a shock. i am not saying that it is happening NOW...no-one really knows that. but i think it WILL ultimately happen. the giant pyramid of leverage and derivatives could conceivably deliver a systemic shock that can't be printed away by the Fed. note, nothing of this has anything to do with PPI or CPI inflation (both understated btw, due to the peculiar statistical methods employed by the BLS). inflation's true character is an expansion in the money supply beyond the needs of the economy. if it is not channeled into goods and services prices, it is channeled into asset prices, which is in effect what has happened. don't kid yourself that the Nasdaq is 'worth' a certain amount, or that p/e's ranging between 50 and infinity are somehow 'normal' due to our great new era. they are simply distortions brought on by an uncontrolled expansion in the money supply. best regards, hb

To: Andy H who wrote (45900)	4/13/2000 7:54:00 PM
From: pass pass	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Nasdaq composite index is about 300 points away from its 200-day moving average. So I think NAZ is quite close to its bottom. Most of tech stocks' earning reports are quite good so far so the sell-off is mostly emotional. The pain will soon pass.

To: Andy H who wrote (45900)	4/13/2000 9:36:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Good job andy. I have one question but first a statement. The decline was/is being caused by gross overvaluation. TA has worked well with the market we just had. My believe in TA only goes so far but when I market becomes driven by valuation like I think the market well be going forward, TA only becomes one of the factors in stock picking. What I want to know is, at what valuation will stocks become cheap enough to own? Greg

To: Andy H who wrote (45900)	4/14/2000 8:04:00 AM
From: d_trader_99	Respond to of 99985

Numbers are not enough! You can compute these numbers to make guess of the bottom and support on NADAQ. What I am really concerned is why this happened and how it happened. Is there any fundamental change which drove down NASDAQ by 20% in just 4 days? What has been changed in the economy since March 10? Moreover, if economy is still strong but why NASDAQ collapsed. If this is just a valuation correction process, I would say that NASDAQ may have a lot to fall. To have CSCO PE at 50, CSCO should be priced around $20, a 65% decline from its current price. To have BVSN PE at 100, CSCO should be cut by 80% to trade at $7. .... I saw many no PE small stocks tanked first and then these big no PE boys started to fall and speed up. What happened in Thursday was that these very strong big names with high PE such as CSCO, PMCS...even INTC started to fall in the last hour. If this was a start of haircut for them, NASDAQ would sink far more than another 20% because when these companies fall, they drag all stocks, no mater small or large, with them. The risk here is that when the stock market continues to fall, the so-called super strong economy will fall too as demand (for houses, for luxuries,.....) declines. Without the booming stock market, the super strong economy cannot continue. Thus, there would be another "Japan" story in the history book.

To: Andy H who wrote (45900)	4/14/2000 11:42:00 AM
From: playavermont	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Where are the Gurus now?? Abby, Ralph, Joe Batt.,......... Let's take Abby ... She said the S&P would end the year around 1525-1575 +/- I believe.... That would be over 10% upside from here! Where is she??? Ralph and Joe said Nasdaq 5,500-6,000 in 12-18 months when we went through 5,000........ That would be a 55%-65% move from here!!!..... Hello guys!